Lake Barcroft, Virginia

Area Profile

10,973 residents. Public schools, jobs, income, housing cost, climate and natural-hazard risk for Lake Barcroft, in Fairfax County.

Area Score unavailable

Missing required signal: growth. AreaProfile withholds a score rather than inferring the missing dimensions.

How we calculate this

How this area ranks
OpportunityTop 43% of 3,904 cities measured60
Schools2385th of 2,668 cities measured20
Housing affordability2777th of 4,223 cities measured70
ClimateTop 42% of 4,223 cities measured72
Physical resilienceTop 22% of 4,182 cities measured81
AccessTop 44% of 4,226 cities measured93
Economic stabilityTop 9% of 4,226 cities measured79
The quick read

Unemployment is 3.6% and median household income $140,882, putting employment conditions in the middle range of published city profiles.

Natural-hazard exposure is lower than in most comparable published city profiles, placing Lake Barcroft in the top 22% for physical resilience.

A major airport is 17 miles away, giving the area unusually direct access to the national air network.

At a glance

Population
10,973
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median household income
$140,882
Top 6% nationally
Density
4,510/sq mi
2.4 sq mi of land
Median age
40.7
2024 ACS 5-Year
County
Fairfax County
Virginia
Metro area
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
Nearest major airport
IAD
17 mi · Washington Dulles Intl
Median home value
$887,300
2024 ACS 5-Year

Jobs & opportunity

Unemployment of 3.6% is lower than 80% of the 3,904 measured US cities.

Employment fell 3.0% over the past year, to 611,867 employed residents.

65% of adults hold a four-year degree, higher than 95% of measured US cities.

Household income is higher than at least 94% of measured US cities.

MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Median household income ±$25,107$140,882Top 6%of 29,5732024 ACS 5-Year
Per capita income ±$5,410$72,852Top 5%of 31,4202024 ACS 5-Year
Poverty rate5.6%Bottom 26%of 31,9002024 ACS 5-Year
Average commute31.9 minTop 26%of 31,5432024 ACS 5-Year
Bachelor's degree or higher65.1%Top 5%of 31,9192024 ACS 5-Year
Employment611,867Top 10%of 3,904June 2026
Employment change (3 years)-4.1%Bottom 6%of 3,903June 2026
Employment change (year over year)-3.0%Bottom 8%of 3,904June 2026
Labor force634,755Top 10%of 3,904June 2026
Labor force participation69.0%Top 21%of 31,9332024 ACS 5-Year
Mean annual wage$91,930Top 6%of 3,6582025 OEWS
Median annual wage$71,060Top 8%of 3,6582025 OEWS
Unemployment change (year over year)0.4%Top 36%of 3,904June 2026
Unemployment rate3.6%Bottom 20%of 3,904June 2026
Median household income, successive ACS releases
2021202220232024144k127k
Each point is a separate five-year estimate, most recently $140,882 in the 2024 ACS 5-Year. Consecutive releases share four years of sample, so AreaProfile shows them as a record of successive estimates and does not compute a year-over-year change from them.
Largest occupations — Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
OccupationPeople employedMedian annual wage
General and Operations Managers112,530$156,460
Business Operations Specialists, All Other76,600$104,770
Software Developers69,060$154,930
Retail Salespersons66,920$36,610
Management Analysts62,360$126,830
Fast Food and Counter Workers60,560$34,600

Occupational employment and wages are published for metropolitan areas rather than for individual cities or ZIP areas, so these describe the wider labor market this location sits in. 2025 OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes city-level labor data only for places of 25,000 or more. This is the figure for Fairfax County, VA, which contains this city.

33% of students met the state standard in mathematics and 42% in reading, across the schools here that reported results.

There are 14.9 students for every full-time teacher, fewer than in most measured places.

Public schools
3
2024-25 school year
Students per teacher
14.9
across all schools here
Math proficiency
32.9%
Bottom 12% in Virginia
Reading proficiency
42.3%
Bottom 6% in Virginia
SchoolDistrictStudentsPer teacherMathReading
Justice HighFairfax County Public Schools2,35715.5
Bailey's Upper Elementary School for the Arts and SciencesFairfax County Public Schools53913.820%32%
Sleepy Hollow ElementaryFairfax County Public Schools47513.247%54%

78.3% of students here are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch. That describes the circumstances families arrive with rather than how the schools perform, which is why AreaProfile shows it and does not score it.

Public schools only, from the NCES Common Core of Data. Schools are placed by ZIP code, so this is which schools are in this place rather than which one a particular address is zoned for — district boundaries do not follow municipal ones, and enrollment zones change. Fully virtual schools are excluded: they enroll students from across the state while reporting one administrative address, and counting them here would describe a school population this place does not have. The assessment covers grades 3 through 8, so a high school shows no proficiency figure — a dash in those columns means the test was not given at that school, not that it performed badly. Proficiency is measured against Virginia’s own standard, so it compares cleanly within the state and only broadly against other states; AreaProfile therefore ranks it within state. The directory is current, while the proficiency figures are from the last school year with national coverage before the pandemic interrupted testing.

Housing & affordability

How it’s calculated →

Prices for everything a household buys run about 10% above the national average, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis index. Housing drives most of that difference.

Median rent of $1,923 takes 16% of median household income, below the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened.

A median home costs 6.3 times median household income here, well above the historic benchmark, at a level conventionally described as seriously unaffordable.

Cost of living
109.5

Prices here run about 10% above the national average. The spread between places is driven mostly by housing — goods vary far less — and this excludes taxes.

Rent as a share of income
16.4%
Below the 30% cost-burdened threshold
Home price to income
6.3×
median home value ÷ median income
Median gross rent
$1,923
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value
$887,300
2024 ACS 5-Year
MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Cost of living index109.5Top 27%of 3,6582023
Home price to income6.30Top 8%of 28,4732024 ACS 5-Year
Homeownership rate68.4%Bottom 35%of 31,8432024 ACS 5-Year
Housing units ±2454,017Top 14%of 32,3302024 ACS 5-Year
Median gross rent ±$92$1,923Top 10%of 23,4322024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value ±$21,504$887,300Top 3%of 29,3422024 ACS 5-Year
Rent as a share of income16.4%Bottom 34%of 23,2012024 ACS 5-Year
Vacancy rate0.9%Bottom 13%of 32,0012024 ACS 5-Year

Both affordability measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with, so the comparison is like for like. They describe housing cost against local earnings and are not a cost-of-living index — transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not included, and a place can look affordable here and still be expensive to live in for reasons this does not capture.

Growth & development

How it’s calculated →

No building-permit activity is published for this location by the Census Building Permits Survey.

Weather & climate

6 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 90°F and January a low of 30°F.

Normal annual precipitation is 41.8 inches, including 13.7 inches of snow.

Air quality measures a median index of 42, in the Good band, and about 3 days a year pass 100, the threshold at which the air is unhealthy for sensitive groups.

20°40°60°80°100°JFMAMJJASOND
Solid line: normal daily high. Dashed line: normal daily low. 1991-2020 normals from NOAA station WASHINGTON REAGAN AP, 6.7 miles from this location.
Precipitation
JFMAMJJASOND4.3"
Normal monthly precipitation, in inches.
MetricValueSource period
90th percentile air quality index61.02024 calendar year
Annual precipitation41.8"1991-2020 Normals
Annual snowfall13.7"1991-2020 Normals
Average January low30°F1991-2020 Normals
Average July high90°F1991-2020 Normals
Comfortable months61991-2020 Normals
Days above AQI 10032024 calendar year
Median air quality index42.02024 calendar year
Seasonal temperature swing44°F1991-2020 Normals
Air quality
Median air quality index
42
Good on a typical day
Worst tenth of days
61
90th percentile index
Days above 100
3
unhealthy for sensitive groups

A comfortable median and a bad tail are different problems. Wildfire smoke and summer ozone show up in the worst tenth of days, not in the middle of the year.

Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. They describe what a typical year looks like rather than what the weather is doing today. Air quality is measured rather than modelled, by EPA monitors, and published by county only where a monitor sits — roughly half the counties AreaProfile publishes have one, and the rest show nothing rather than an estimate. Air masses are regional, so a county reading describes the air over a place reasonably well, but it is still the county reading.

Physical risk

81 / 100
Physical resilience

The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are hurricane, cold wave and drought.

HurricaneModerate
Cold waveModerate
LandslideModerate
DroughtModerate

Low or minimal exposure: lightning, winter weather, heat wave, inland flooding, strong wind, hail, earthquake, ice storm, tornado, coastal flooding, wildfire.

Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. City values are the population-weighted mean of the counties the city overlaps, using AreaProfile place-to-county land-area weights. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.

These are deaths, not offences — they say nothing about burglary, theft or assault.

Fairfax County records 1.9 homicide deaths per 100,000 residents a year, lower than most counties measured. The CDC does not publish this below county level.

Firearm deaths of all intents run at 4.8 per 100,000 — more than the homicide rate, because nationally most firearm deaths are suicides.

Drug overdose deaths run at 6.9 per 100,000 residents in Fairfax County.

Homicide
1.9
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths
Firearm deaths, all intents
4.8
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths
Drug overdose
6.9
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths
Suicide
7.7
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths

Firearm deaths count every intent together, and nationally the majority are suicides rather than homicides. The two columns overlap and should not be added.

Age-adjusted rates from provisional death certificate records, published by the CDC for Fairfax County as a whole — these rates are not published below county level. A county can hold both a dense city centre and a suburb whose experience of it is nothing alike, so this describes the county around Lake Barcroft rather than Lake Barcroft itself. That is why AreaProfile shows these figures and does not put them in the Area Score. Where fewer than ten deaths were recorded the count is suppressed at source, and a rate built on single figures moves sharply between releases. What this measure has that reported crime does not: a death certificate is filed whether or not the local police agency submitted a return that year, so the figures stay comparable between places and over time.

What this profile does not cover

Three things people look for are missing from every AreaProfile page, and each is missing for a reason rather than by oversight. The Area Score is calculated without them and the weighting is documented on the methodology page.

Reported crime
Offences reported to police are published by department rather than by town, and only where a department reported every month of the year. No municipal department reports for this place — many smaller communities are policed by the county — so there is no figure to show. A partial year is never scaled up to look complete, and arrest counts or news volume are never substituted for it.
Taxes
Taxes are not published: no source covers them nationally with a method open enough to check. Cost of living now is — the index above is the Bureau of Economic Analysis price parity for this area — but it is a price level for all consumption rather than a budget for a household, its spread is driven mostly by housing, and it excludes taxes. Housing affordability is computed separately from rent, price and income, because that answers a narrower and more actionable question. Nothing here is individualised tax advice.
Anything about a specific address
Every figure describes an area, not a street or a house. School attendance zones, insurance pricing and the character of a neighbourhood all vary within the places measured here.

Access

4 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest 17 miles away.

AirportCodeDistanceLongest runway
Washington Dulles IntlIAD17 mi11,500 ft
Baltimore/Washington Intl Thurgood MarshallBWI35 mi10,503 ft
Richmond IntlRIC93 mi9,003 ft

Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.

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Other cities in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

Same metropolitan area, measured the same way
CityCountyPopulationArea ScoreCompare
WashingtonDistrict of Columbia681,29465vs Lake Barcroft
ArlingtonArlington County236,254vs Lake Barcroft
AlexandriaAlexandria city156,97661vs Lake Barcroft
GermantownMontgomery County90,719vs Lake Barcroft
FrederickFrederick County83,39570vs Lake Barcroft
WaldorfCharles County82,943vs Lake Barcroft
Silver SpringMontgomery County81,462vs Lake Barcroft
CentrevilleFairfax County71,706vs Lake Barcroft
Dale CityPrince William County71,016vs Lake Barcroft
GaithersburgMontgomery County69,82568vs Lake Barcroft
BethesdaMontgomery County69,397vs Lake Barcroft
RockvilleMontgomery County67,67171vs Lake Barcroft

Every city here is measured on the same scale from the same source releases, so the comparison is like for like. A higher Area Score reflects AreaProfile’s standardized weighting rather than a judgment about which is the better place to live.

Data & methodology

Used forSourceSource periodUpdated
AccessFederal Aviation Administration
Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service
NASR current cycle28-day NASR cycle
Physical riskFederal Emergency Management Agency
National Risk Index
National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0)Periodic dataset versions (v1.20.0 current)
ClimateNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly)
1991-2020 NormalsEvery ten years (next release follows the 2001–2030 period)
HousingU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Regional price parities and county personal income
2023Annually, each December
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
2025 OEWSAnnual (spring release)
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
June 2026Monthly
Demographics, Housing, Income, JobsU.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File)
2024 ACS 5-YearAnnual (5-year estimates released each December)
safetyU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics
Provisional county-level mortality by intent
April, 2025 to March, 2026Quarterly, with a rolling twelve-month window alongside complete calendar years
schoolsU.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Common Core of Data and EDFacts assessments
2019-20 school year; 2024-25 school yearDirectory annually; assessment results as EDFacts releases them
ClimateU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air Quality System
Daily Air Quality Index by county
2024 calendar yearAnnually, once a calendar year is complete

Profile recalculated August 30, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology or browse every source.

ZIP codes in Lake Barcroft

1 published ZIP profiles
ZIPPopulationMedian household incomeArea Score
2204413,996$101,034