20186 — Warrenton, Virginia

Area Profile

Income, jobs, climate, physical risk and development data for ZIP code 20186. Its median household income runs 17% above Warrenton as a whole, which is why this ZIP carries a profile of its own.

66out of 100
Area Score
Top 24% of 3,113 profiles measured

How we calculate this

How this area ranks

Data updated · 15 sources
OpportunityTop 36% of 3,116 ZIP areas measured61
SchoolsTop 45% of 3,047 ZIP areas measured54
GrowthTop 18% of 3,124 ZIP areas measured67
Housing affordability2,098th of 3,112 ZIP areas measured60
ClimateTop 34% of 3,127 ZIP areas measured74
Physical resilienceTop 33% of 3,127 ZIP areas measured71
Access2,117th of 3,127 ZIP areas measured86
Economic stabilityTop 22% of 3,127 ZIP areas measured71
The quick read

Unemployment is 2.9% and median household income $97,801, putting employment conditions in the middle range of ZIP areas measured. The unemployment rate is published for Warrenton, VA, which contains 20186, rather than for 20186 alone.

In the public schools here, 80% of students met the state standard in mathematics, with 12.3 students for every teacher.

Development activity is both elevated and accelerating — 59 housing units permitted over the past twelve months, against 8 the year before. The permit count and 1 other measure here are published for Warrenton, VA, which contains 20186, rather than for 20186 alone.

These sentences are written by fixed rules from the measurements below — a statement appears because a number crossed a stated threshold, and the values behind it are stored with it. No figure anywhere on this site is invented, estimated or inferred to fill a gap. How this works.

At a glance

Population
15,703
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median household income
$97,801
Top 20% nationally
Density
268/sq mi
58.7 sq mi of land
Median age
41.6
2024 ACS 5-Year
City
Warrenton
Virginia
Nearest major airport
IAD
27 mi · Washington Dulles Intl
Median home value
$523,400
2024 ACS 5-Year

Jobs & opportunity

Unemployment across Warrenton, VA, which contains 20186, is 2.9%, lower than in 95% of the 3,127 measured US ZIP areas.

Employment across Warrenton, VA, which contains 20186, fell 2.4% over the past year, to 39,973 employed residents.

47% of adults hold a four-year degree, higher than 85% of measured US ZIP areas.

MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Income of new arrivalsFauquier County, VA’s figurefiling years 2022–2023$99,63886th percentileof 2,996filing years 2022–2023
Income of those who leftFauquier County, VA’s figurefiling years 2022–2023$96,44490th percentileof 2,996filing years 2022–2023
Median household income ±$8,7952024 ACS 5-Year$97,801Top 20%of 31,0492024 ACS 5-Year
Per capita income ±$2,9562024 ACS 5-Year$50,510Top 19%of 32,8222024 ACS 5-Year
Poverty rate ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year7.2%Top 33%of 32,8462024 ACS 5-Year
Average commute ±2.6 min2024 ACS 5-Year34.4 minBottom 20%of 32,8872024 ACS 5-Year
Bachelor's degree or higher ±4%2024 ACS 5-Year46.7%Top 15%of 33,1932024 ACS 5-Year
Drove alone to work ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year69.2%28th percentileof 32,7982024 ACS 5-Year
EmploymentWarrenton, VA’s figureJuly 202639,973Bottom 43%of 3,127July 2026
Employment change (3 years)Warrenton, VA’s figureJuly 2026−4.9%Bottom 5%of 3,127July 2026
Employment change (year over year)Warrenton, VA’s figureJuly 2026−2.4%Bottom 13%of 3,127July 2026
Labor forceWarrenton, VA’s figureJuly 202641,16642nd percentileof 3,127July 2026
Labor force participation ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year81.2%Top 37%of 32,8832024 ACS 5-Year
Mean annual wageWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area’s figure2025 OEWS$91,930Top 4%of 2,7602025 OEWS
Median annual wageWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area’s figure2025 OEWS$71,060Top 5%of 2,7602025 OEWS
Public transit to work ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year1.5%84th percentileof 32,7982024 ACS 5-Year
Unemployment change (year over year)Warrenton, VA’s figureJuly 2026+0.2%Bottom 35%of 3,127July 2026
Unemployment rateWarrenton, VA’s figureJuly 20262.9%Top 5%of 3,127July 2026
Worked from home ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year16.2%75th percentileof 32,7982024 ACS 5-Year

Median household income, successive ACS releases

2021202220232024101k94k
Each point is a separate five-year estimate, most recently $97,801 in the 2024 ACS 5-Year. Consecutive releases share four years of sample, so AreaProfile shows them as a record of successive estimates and does not compute a year-over-year change from them.

Largest occupations — Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

OccupationPeople employedMedian annual wage
General and Operations Managers112,530$156,460
Business Operations Specialists, All Other76,600$104,770
Software Developers69,060$154,930
Retail Salespersons66,920$36,610
Management Analysts62,360$126,830
Fast Food and Counter Workers60,560$34,600

Searches the 40 largest occupations here that have a published wage.

Occupational employment and wages are published for metropolitan areas rather than for individual cities or ZIP areas, so these describe the wider labor market this location sits in. 2025 OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish labor-force data for ZIP areas. This is the figure for Warrenton, VA, the city containing this ZIP code.

80% of students met the state standard in mathematics and 80% in reading, across the schools here that reported results.

There are 12.3 students for every full-time teacher across 4 public schools, fewer than in most measured places.

Public schools
4
2024-25 school year
Students per teacher
12.3
across all schools here
Math proficiency
79.9%
Bottom 36% in Virginia
Reading proficiency
80.2%
Top 44% in Virginia
All 4 public schools on record, largest first.
SchoolDistrictStudentsPer teacherMathReading
Fauquier HighFauquier County Public Schools1,15611.780%88%
W.C. Taylor MiddleFauquier County Public Schools62312.081%70%
James G. Brumfield ElementaryFauquier County Public Schools49614.274%73%
C.M. Bradley ElementaryFauquier County Public Schools36212.986%83%

29.7% of students here are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch. That describes the circumstances families arrive with, not how the schools perform, so it is shown and not scored.

Public schools only, from the NCES Common Core of Data, placed by ZIP code — which schools are in this place, not which one a particular address is zoned for. A dash in a proficiency column is a gap in the federal file, not a bad result. Proficiency is measured against Virginia’s own standard, so it is ranked within state. How to read school figures.

Prices for everything a household buys run about 10% above the national average — the Bureau of Economic Analysis index reads 109.5, against 100 for the nation. Nationally, housing drives most of the spread between places in this index; other goods vary far less.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index for the Arlington-Alexandria-Reston, VA-WV Metropolitan Division is up 34% over five years, and up 2.6% over the last year. It follows repeat sales of the same homes, so it measures price change rather than which homes happened to sell.

Homeowners here who pay a tax bill pay a median of $3,710 a year in real estate taxes, about 0.71% of the median home value.

HUD’s Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom, set near the 40th percentile of recent new leases, is $1,740, some 16% above the $1,501 tenants already here pay.

At HUD’s Fair Market Rent of $1,740 a month for a two-bedroom, keeping rent to 30% of income takes a household income of about $69,600 a year, about 71% of the median household income here of $97,801.

The typical renter household here spends 31% of its income on rent, above the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened. Median gross rent runs $1,501 a month.

A median home at $523,400 costs 4.0 times the median income of its owner-occupied households, $130,000, above the historic benchmark of about 3 times income.

Cost of living
109.5

Prices here run about 10% above the national average. The spread between places is driven mostly by housing — goods vary far less — and this excludes taxes.

Published for the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area as a whole. Prices are regional — people shop, commute and rent across a metropolitan area rather than within a city boundary — so this describes the cost of living around this place better than a figure drawn to its own limits would.

Rent as a share of income
30.7%
Above the 30% cost-burdened threshold
Home price to income
4.0×
median home value ÷ owner household income
Market rent, two bedroom
$1,740
what a new lease costs · FY2026
Median gross rent
$1,501
what tenants now pay · 2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value
$523,400
2024 ACS 5-Year

The figures above are measured against 20186’s median household income of $97,801, which describes the place rather than you. Enter your own and the ratio is recomputed against it. It stays in this browser.

MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Cost of living indexthe Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area’s figure2023109.5Bottom 18%of 2,7372023
Home price change (1 year)the Arlington-Alexandria-Reston, VA-WV Metropolitan Division’s figure2026 Q2+2.6%40th percentileof 3,0712026 Q2
Home price change (5 years)the Arlington-Alexandria-Reston, VA-WV Metropolitan Division’s figure2026 Q2+33.9%22nd percentileof 3,0712026 Q2
Home price change (10 years)the Arlington-Alexandria-Reston, VA-WV Metropolitan Division’s figure2026 Q2+67.3%10th percentileof 3,0712026 Q2
Home price to income ±0.62024 ACS 5-Year4.0Bottom 18%of 29,2752024 ACS 5-Year
Homeownership rate ±4%2024 ACS 5-Year68.8%27th percentileof 32,7502024 ACS 5-Year
Housing units ±2942024 ACS 5-Year6,07175th percentileof 33,4602024 ACS 5-Year
Market rent, one bedroomFY2026$1,560Bottom 32%of 3,031FY2026
Market rent, three bedroomFY2026$2,200Bottom 41%of 3,031FY2026
Market rent, two bedroomFY2026$1,740Bottom 37%of 3,031FY2026
Median gross rent ±$1692024 ACS 5-Year$1,501Bottom 21%of 26,3962024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value ±$30,6982024 ACS 5-Year$523,40088th percentileof 30,8122024 ACS 5-Year
Median property taxes ±$2722024 ACS 5-Year$3,71078th percentileof 28,9352024 ACS 5-Year
Owner household income ±$17,4022024 ACS 5-Year$130,000Top 12%of 29,8022024 ACS 5-Year
Property tax rate ±0.07%2024 ACS 5-Year0.71%33rd percentileof 24,0992024 ACS 5-Year
Rent as a share of income ±4%2024 ACS 5-Year30.7%Bottom 36%of 26,2472024 ACS 5-Year
Seasonal and second homes ±942024 ACS 5-Year11477th percentileof 33,7722024 ACS 5-Year
Second homes2024 ACS 5-Year1.9%58th percentileof 32,9612024 ACS 5-Year
Vacancy rate2024 ACS 5-Year1.8%13th percentileof 32,7882024 ACS 5-Year
Vacant housing units ±1212024 ACS 5-Year22356th percentileof 33,7722024 ACS 5-Year

These measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with. They compare housing cost with local earnings only: transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not in them. How to read affordability, the two rent figures and the cost-of-living index.

Development Momentum

67/ 100
Top 18% of 3,124 published ZIP profiles

An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.

New construction is predominantly single-family: of 59 units permitted over the past twelve months, none were in buildings of five or more homes. The multifamily share is published for Warrenton, VA, which contains 20186, rather than for 20186 alone.

At 5.8 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is above the median for measured US ZIP areas. The permit rate is published for Warrenton, VA, which contains 20186, rather than for 20186 alone.

Units permitted
59
12 months ending July 2026
Per 1,000 residents
5.8
Top 28% nationally
Year over year
+638%
vs the prior twelve months
Multifamily share
0.0%
units in 5+ unit buildings

People moving in and out

Net migration
+1.0%
of residents, in a year
Arrivals from another state
27%
of people moving in
Income of arrivals
$99,638
average per tax return
Income of those who left
$96,444
average per tax return

Where newcomers came from

  1. Prince William County, VA 1,248 people · 27% of arrivals
  2. Fairfax County, VA 490 people · 11% of arrivals
  3. Loudoun County, VA 318 people · 6.9% of arrivals
  4. Culpeper County, VA 249 people · 5.4% of arrivals
  5. Manassas city, VA 186 people · 4.0% of arrivals

Where people who left went

  1. Prince William County, VA 486 people · 12% of departures
  2. Culpeper County, VA 410 people · 10% of departures
  3. Fairfax County, VA 229 people · 5.7% of departures
  4. Warren County, VA 164 people · 4.1% of departures
  5. Loudoun County, VA 151 people · 3.8% of departures

Based on the address on federal tax returns, compared with the same filers a year earlier. It counts people who file, and sees a move only when the address on a return changes. Domestic moves only: people arriving from abroad are left out. This is the figure for Fauquier County, VA. IRS Statistics of Income, filing years 2022–2023.

The Building Permits Survey is not published for ZIP areas. This is the figure for Warrenton, VA, the city containing this ZIP code.

Weather & climate

7 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 88°F and January a low of 25°F.

Normal annual precipitation is 43.2 inches, including 21.0 inches of snow.

10°30°50°70°90°JFMAMJJASOND
Solid line: normal daily high. Dashed line: normal daily low. 1991-2020 normals from NOAA station WASHINGTON DC DULLES AP, 26.7 miles from this location.

Precipitation

JFMAMJJASOND4.7"
Normal monthly precipitation, in inches.
MetricValueSource period
90th percentile air quality index2024 calendar year462024 calendar year
Annual precipitation1991-2020 Normals43.2"1991-2020 Normals
Annual snowfall1991-2020 Normals21.0"1991-2020 Normals
Average January low1991-2020 Normals25°F1991-2020 Normals
Average July high1991-2020 Normals88°F1991-2020 Normals
Comfortable months1991-2020 Normals71991-2020 Normals
Days above AQI 1002024 calendar year02024 calendar year
Median air quality index2024 calendar year362024 calendar year
Seasonal temperature swing1991-2020 Normals43°F1991-2020 Normals

Air quality

Median air quality index
36
Good on a typical day
Worst tenth of days
46
90th percentile index
Days above 100
0
unhealthy for sensitive groups

Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. Air quality is measured by EPA monitors and published by county only where a monitor sits; a county without one shows nothing rather than an estimate, and a county reading is still the county’s. How to read climate and air quality.

Physical risk

71 / 100
Physical resilience

The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, strong wind and hurricane, with inland flooding alone responsible for 73% of it.

HurricaneModerate
Inland floodingModerate
Strong windModerate
EarthquakeModerate
LandslideModerate
Cold waveModerate

Low or minimal exposure: lightning, heat wave, hail, winter weather, drought, wildfire, ice storm, tornado, avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.

Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. ZIP values are the land-area-weighted mean of the counties the ZIP Code Tabulation Area intersects. Expected annual loss is not allocated below county level. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.

These are deaths, not offenses — they say nothing about burglary, theft or assault.

Homicide
2.3
per 100,000 residents · modeled, not measured
Firearm deaths, all intents
9.5
per 100,000 residents · modeled, not measured
Drug overdose
16.0
per 100,000 residents
Suicide
14.6
per 100,000 residents

Firearm deaths count every intent together, and nationally the majority are suicides rather than homicides, so the firearm figure and the homicide figure above it count some of the same deaths twice over. They overlap and should not be added together.

Death rates are crude rates — deaths divided by population, not adjusted for age — except where a count was too small for the CDC to publish and it modeled the rate, which the card marks. They come from provisional death certificate records, published by the CDC by county and not below it. So they describe the county around 20186 (Fauquier County) rather than 20186 itself. They are shown and not scored. How to read death rates.

What this profile does not cover

Each of these is absent for a reason, not by oversight. The Area Score is calculated without them; the weighting is on the methodology page.

Reported crime
Offenses reported to police are published by department rather than by town, so AreaProfile shows a rate only on city profiles, and only where that city’s department submitted every month of a year. A ZIP area is not a jurisdiction, so no department reports for one. Warrenton carries the figure where its department reported a full year. A partial year is never scaled up to look complete, and arrest counts or news volume are never substituted for it.
Taxes
Income and sales taxes are not published: no source covers them nationally with a method open enough to check. Property taxes are shown in the housing section but are not part of the score. The cost-of-living index above is a price level for all consumption, not a household budget, and it excludes taxes. Nothing here is individualized tax advice.
Anything about a specific address
Every figure describes an area, not a street or a house.

Access

3 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest Washington Dulles Intl at 27 miles.

MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Broadband access ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year91.3%Top 40%of 32,6632024 ACS 5-Year
Distance to major airportNASR current cycle27 miBottom 33%of 3,127NASR current cycle
Major airports within 100 milesNASR current cycle3Bottom 21%of 3,127NASR current cycle
No internet access ±2%2024 ACS 5-Year7.2%Top 47%of 32,6632024 ACS 5-Year
AirportCodeDistanceLongest runway
Washington Dulles IntlIAD27 mi11,500 ft
Baltimore/Washington Intl Thurgood MarshallBWI71 mi10,503 ft
Richmond IntlRIC86 mi9,003 ft

Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.

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Area Score
66
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Data & methodology

Used forSourceSource period
AccessFederal Aviation Administration
Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service
NASR current cycle
Physical riskFederal Emergency Management Agency
National Risk Index
National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0)
Demographics, IncomeInternal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division
U.S. Population Migration Data (county to county)
filing years 2022–2023
ClimateNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly)
1991-2020 Normals
HousingU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Regional price parities and county personal income
2023
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
July 2026
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
2025 OEWS
Access, Demographics, Housing, Income, JobsU.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File)
2024 ACS 5-Year
DevelopmentU.S. Census Bureau
Building Permits Survey
12 months ending July 2026
DemographicsU.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates Program
July 1, 2024 estimate
SafetyU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics
Provisional county-level mortality by intent
March 2025 to February 2026; May 2025 to April 2026
SchoolsU.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Common Core of Data and EDFacts assessments
2018-19 school year; 2024-25 school year
HousingU.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Fair Market Rents
FY2026
ClimateU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air Quality System
Daily Air Quality Index by county
2024 calendar year
HousingU.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency
House Price Index (traditional, all-transactions)
2026 Q2
Current conditionsNOAA National Weather Service
National Weather Service current conditions
Live observation, read when the page opens

Profile recalculated October 8, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology, or every source with how often each updates.

20186 vs Warrenton

How this ZIP area compares with Warrenton as a whole. Both figures come from the same ACS release, so the comparison is like for like — a gap here is a real difference between the two places, not two surveys disagreeing.

20186
Warrenton
Median household income: 20186 is the more favorable of the two.
Median household income
$97,801
vs
$83,331
Per capita income: 20186 is the more favorable of the two.
Per capita income
$50,510
vs
$42,612
Population density
268/sq mi
vs
2,323/sq mi
Median home value
$523,400
vs
$478,300
Median gross rent: Warrenton is the more favorable of the two.
Median gross rent
$1,501
vs
$1,418
Homeownership rate
68.8%
vs
63.0%
Bachelor's degree or higher: 20186 is the more favorable of the two.
Bachelor's degree or higher
46.7%
vs
46.1%
Poverty rate: 20186 is the more favorable of the two.
Poverty rate
7.2%
vs
10.4%
Median age
41.6
vs
40.2

Some demographic statistics use Census ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, which approximate but do not exactly match USPS ZIP delivery geography. See the methodology for how AreaProfile maps between them.