Warren County, VA

County Profile

41,531 residents. Safety, jobs, income, housing cost, climate and natural-hazard risk for Warren County, VA.

Several figures AreaProfile publishes are measured by county and nowhere finer — death rates by intent among them. On this page those describe the geography they are printed on, which is not true of the city and ZIP pages that inherit them.

58out of 100
Area Score
Bottom 37% of 1,225 published profiles

How we calculate this

How this area ranks
Opportunity758th of 1,255 counties51
Schools530th of 973 counties47
Growth618th of 1,226 counties50
Housing affordability805th of 1,255 counties87
ClimateTop 45% of 1,254 counties70
Physical resilience880th of 1,255 counties45
Access790th of 1,255 counties75
Economic stabilityTop 41% of 1,255 counties67
The quick read

Unemployment is 3.7% and median household income $84,682, putting employment conditions in the middle range of published profiles.

In the public schools here, 51% of students met the state standard in mathematics, with 13.7 students for every teacher.

Physical-risk exposure is above the national median, driven mainly by inland flooding, drought and lightning.

At a glance

Population
41,531
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median household income
$84,682
Top 13% nationally
Density
194/sq mi
214.6 sq mi of land
Median age
40.5
2024 ACS 5-Year
County
Warren County
Virginia
Metro area
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
Nearest major airport
IAD
40 mi · Washington Dulles Intl
Median home value
$348,400
2024 ACS 5-Year

Jobs & opportunity

Unemployment of 3.7% is lower than 70% of the 1,255 measured US locations.

Employment fell 2.9% over the past year, to 20,450 employed residents.

Household income is higher than at least 87% of measured US locations.

MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Median household income ±$6,378$84,682Top 13%2024 ACS 5-Year
Per capita income ±$1,930$40,091Top 25%2024 ACS 5-Year
Poverty rate11.6%Bottom 36%2024 ACS 5-Year
Average commute40.3 minTop 1%2024 ACS 5-Year
Bachelor's degree or higher25.0%Top 38%2024 ACS 5-Year
Employment20,450Bottom 25%June 2026
Employment change (3 years)-4.2%Bottom 9%June 2026
Employment change (year over year)-2.9%Bottom 9%June 2026
Labor force21,227Bottom 24%June 2026
Labor force participation62.4%Top 30%2024 ACS 5-Year
Unemployment change (year over year)0.4%Top 30%June 2026
Unemployment rate3.7%Bottom 30%June 2026
Unemployment rate
2021/062022/032022/122023/092024/062025/032025/102026/064.12.3
Monthly unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, most recent value 3.7% in June 2026. A break in the line is a month the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish for this area — it is left empty rather than estimated.
Median household income, successive ACS releases
202120222023202485k73k
Each point is a separate five-year estimate, most recently $84,682 in the 2024 ACS 5-Year. Consecutive releases share four years of sample, so AreaProfile shows them as a record of successive estimates and does not compute a year-over-year change from them.
Largest occupations — Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
OccupationPeople employedMedian annual wage
General and Operations Managers112,530$156,460
Business Operations Specialists, All Other76,600$104,770
Software Developers69,060$154,930
Retail Salespersons66,920$36,610
Management Analysts62,360$126,830
Fast Food and Counter Workers60,560$34,600

Occupational employment and wages are published for metropolitan areas rather than for individual cities or ZIP areas, so these describe the wider labor market this location sits in. 2025 OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

51% of students met the state standard in mathematics and 61% in reading, across the schools here that reported results.

There are 13.7 students for every full-time teacher, fewer than in most measured places.

Public schools
9
2024-25 school year
Students per teacher
13.7
across all schools here
Math proficiency
50.7%
Bottom 44% in Virginia
Reading proficiency
60.8%
Bottom 37% in Virginia
SchoolDistrictStudentsPer teacherMathReading
Skyline HighWarren County Public Schools84814.6
Warren County HighWarren County Public Schools77213.3
Ressie Jeffries ElementaryWarren County Public Schools64915.555%63%
Warren County MiddleWarren County Public Schools56912.647%67%
Skyline MiddleWarren County Public Schools53611.242%52%
Leslie Fox Keyser ElementaryWarren County Public Schools47413.552%64%
E. Wilson Morrison ElementaryWarren County Public Schools45813.147%55%
Hilda J. Barbour ElementaryWarren County Public Schools45315.155%59%
A.S. Rhodes ElementaryWarren County Public Schools26516.662%67%

73.9% of students here are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch. That describes the circumstances families arrive with rather than how the schools perform, which is why AreaProfile shows it and does not score it.

Public schools only, from the NCES Common Core of Data. Schools are placed by ZIP code, so this is which schools are in this place rather than which one a particular address is zoned for — district boundaries do not follow municipal ones, and enrollment zones change. Fully virtual schools are excluded: they enroll students from across the state while reporting one administrative address, and counting them here would describe a school population this place does not have. The assessment covers grades 3 through 8, so a high school shows no proficiency figure — a dash in those columns means the test was not given at that school, not that it performed badly. Proficiency is measured against Virginia’s own standard, so it compares cleanly within the state and only broadly against other states; AreaProfile therefore ranks it within state. The directory is current, while the proficiency figures are from the last school year with national coverage before the pandemic interrupted testing.

Housing & affordability

How it’s calculated →

Median rent of $1,199 takes 17% of median household income, below the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened.

A median home costs 4.1 times median household income here, above the historic benchmark of about three times income.

Rent as a share of income
17.0%
Below the 30% cost-burdened threshold
Home price to income
4.1×
median home value ÷ median income
Median gross rent
$1,199
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value
$348,400
2024 ACS 5-Year
MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Home price to income4.11Top 18%2024 ACS 5-Year
Homeownership rate75.9%Top 43%2024 ACS 5-Year
Housing units ±4417,064Top 40%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median gross rent ±$61$1,199Top 17%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value ±$11,038$348,400Top 13%2024 ACS 5-Year
Rent as a share of income17.0%Top 50%2024 ACS 5-Year
Vacancy rate10.1%Bottom 30%2024 ACS 5-Year

Both affordability measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with, so the comparison is like for like. They describe housing cost against local earnings and are not a cost-of-living index — transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not included, and a place can look affordable here and still be expensive to live in for reasons this does not capture.

Growth & development

How it’s calculated →
Development Momentum
50/ 100
Ranks 618 of 1,226 published city profiles
Permitting is decreasing, measured from 2020 to 2025.

An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.

Population has grown 4% since 2020, reaching 42,461 in 2024.

Permitting has turned downward after moving the other way the year before.

Population is still rising, but more slowly than in the preceding year.

New construction is predominantly single-family: only 0% of permitted units are in buildings of five or more homes.

At 3.7 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is above the median for measured US locations.

Units permitted
155
12 months ending July 2026
Per 1,000 residents
3.7
Top 41% nationally
Year over year
−4%
vs the prior twelve months
Multifamily share
0.0%
units in 5+ unit buildings
Population, annual estimates
2020202120222023202442k41k
Census Population Estimates Program, July 1 of each year. These annual estimates are designed for year-over-year comparison, unlike the ACS five-year figure shown as this profile's population.
Housing units permitted per year
202020212022202320242025200148
Annual totals from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permitting in 2025 was lower than 2020 (−18%).

Weather & climate

6 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 87°F and January a low of 24°F.

Normal annual precipitation is 43.4 inches, including 21.1 inches of snow.

10°30°50°70°90°JFMAMJJASOND
Solid line: normal daily high. Dashed line: normal daily low. 1991-2020 normals from NOAA station FRONT ROYAL, 1.4 miles from this location.
Precipitation
JFMAMJJASOND4.8"
Normal monthly precipitation, in inches.
MetricValueSource period
Annual precipitation43.4"1991-2020 Normals
Annual snowfall21.1"1991-2020 Normals
Average January low24°F1991-2020 Normals
Average July high87°F1991-2020 Normals
Comfortable months61991-2020 Normals
Seasonal temperature swing42°F1991-2020 Normals

Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. They describe what a typical year looks like rather than what the weather is doing today.

Physical risk

45 / 100
Physical resilience

The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, drought and lightning.

HurricaneModerate
DroughtModerate
Inland floodingElevated
LightningModerate
Cold waveModerate

Low or minimal exposure: landslide, avalanche, heat wave, earthquake, strong wind, winter weather, hail, wildfire, tornado, ice storm.

Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA National Risk Index county record. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.

These are deaths, not offences. AreaProfile does not publish reported crime, and this is not a substitute for it — it says nothing about burglary, theft or assault.

Warren County records 0.0 homicide deaths per 100,000 residents a year, lower than most counties measured. The CDC does not publish this below county level.

Firearm deaths of all intents run at 10.2 per 100,000 — more than the homicide rate, because nationally most firearm deaths are suicides.

Drug overdose deaths run at 16.1 per 100,000 residents in Warren County.

Homicide
0.0
per 100,000 residents
Firearm deaths, all intents
10.2
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths
Drug overdose
16.1
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths
Suicide
14.8
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths

Firearm deaths count every intent together, and nationally the majority are suicides rather than homicides. The two columns overlap and should not be added.

Age-adjusted rates from provisional death certificate records, published by the CDC for Warren County as a whole — these rates are not published below county level. A county can hold both a dense city centre and a suburb whose experience of it is nothing alike, so this describes the county around Warren County rather than Warren County itself. That is why AreaProfile shows these figures and does not put them in the Area Score. Where fewer than ten deaths were recorded the count is suppressed at source, and a rate built on single figures moves sharply between releases. What this measure has that reported crime does not: a death certificate is filed whether or not the local police agency submitted a return that year, so the figures stay comparable between places and over time.

What this profile does not cover

Three things people look for are missing from every AreaProfile page, and each is missing for a reason rather than by oversight. The Area Score is calculated without them and the weighting is documented on the methodology page.

Reported crime
The FBI’s Crime Data Explorer is the only source for reported offences with national coverage and a published method, and it requires an API key AreaProfile does not hold. Arrest counts, news volume and commercial “safety scores” are not substituted in the meantime. What is published above under Safety is a different measurement — deaths rather than offences, from death certificates rather than police returns — and it covers no property crime at all.
Taxes
No tax dataset has met the source admission test for coverage, transparent methodology and update cadence. Nothing here is individualized tax advice.
Full cost of living
No public source publishes one with national coverage and a documented method. Housing affordability above is computed from published rent, price and income, and excludes transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes — commuting cost in particular tends to offset suburban housing savings.

Access

2 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest 40 miles away.

AirportCodeDistanceLongest runway
Washington Dulles IntlIAD40 mi11,500 ft
Baltimore/Washington Intl Thurgood MarshallBWI85 mi10,503 ft
Richmond IntlRIC108 mi9,003 ft

Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.

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58
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Data & methodology

Used forSourceSource periodUpdated
AccessFederal Aviation Administration
Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service
NASR current cycle28-day NASR cycle
Physical riskFederal Emergency Management Agency
National Risk Index
National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0)Periodic dataset versions (v1.20.0 current)
ClimateNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly)
1991-2020 NormalsEvery ten years (next release follows the 2001–2030 period)
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
June 2026Monthly
DemographicsU.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates Program
July 1, 2024 estimateAnnual (vintage released each spring)
DevelopmentU.S. Census Bureau
Building Permits Survey
12 months ending July 2026Monthly, roughly three weeks after the reference month
Demographics, Housing, Income, JobsU.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File)
2024 ACS 5-YearAnnual (5-year estimates released each December)
safetyU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics
Provisional county-level mortality by intent
April, 2025 to March, 2026Quarterly, with a rolling twelve-month window alongside complete calendar years
schoolsU.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Common Core of Data and EDFacts assessments
2019-20 school year; 2024-25 school yearDirectory annually; assessment results as EDFacts releases them

Profile recalculated August 30, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology or browse every source.

Cities in Warren County, VA