Modesto, California
Area Profile
219,215 residents. Jobs, income, climate, physical risk, development and airport access for Modesto, in Stanislaus County.
Employment conditions sit below most comparable published city profiles: unemployment is 6.5% and the Opportunity signal places Modesto in the bottom 9%.
Physical-risk exposure is above the national median, driven mainly by inland flooding, earthquake and drought.
Its Area Score of 51 places Modesto in the top 87% of published city profiles.
At a glance
Jobs & opportunity
Unemployment of 6.5% is lower than 3% of the 140 measured US cities.
Employment fell 1.5% over the past year, to 92,693 employed residents.
| Metric | Value | Compared with peers | Source period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median household income ±$1,825 | $79,891 | Top 34% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Per capita income ±$922 | $35,523 | Top 45% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Poverty rate | 13.3% | Top 41% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Average commute | 30.6 min | Top 31% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 21.2% | Top 48% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Employment | 92,693 | Bottom 8% | June 2026 |
| Employment change (3 years) | -0.0% | Bottom 47% | June 2026 |
| Employment change (year over year) | -1.5% | Bottom 35% | June 2026 |
| Labor force | 99,174 | Bottom 11% | June 2026 |
| Labor force participation | 61.6% | Top 46% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Mean annual wage | $67,230 | Top 49% | 2025 OEWS |
| Median annual wage | $50,610 | Top 50% | 2025 OEWS |
| Unemployment change (year over year) | -0.5% | Bottom 19% | June 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | 6.5% | Top 3% | June 2026 |
| Occupation | People employed | Median annual wage |
|---|---|---|
| Home Health and Personal Care Aides | 9,160 | $34,320 |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 6,700 | $42,630 |
| Retail Salespersons | 5,140 | $37,430 |
| Cashiers | 4,890 | $36,490 |
| Registered Nurses | 4,850 | $132,590 |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 4,810 | $46,630 |
Occupational employment and wages are published for metropolitan areas rather than for individual cities or ZIP areas, so these describe the wider labor market this location sits in. 2025 OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Growth & development
How it’s calculated →An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.
Population has grown 1% since 2020, reaching 220,592 in 2024.
Permitting has turned upward after moving the other way the year before.
At 3.5 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is below the median for measured US cities.
Weather & climate
8 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 95°F and January a low of 39°F.
Normal annual precipitation is 12.3 inches.
| Metric | Value | Source period |
|---|---|---|
| Annual precipitation | 12.3" | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Average January low | 39°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Average July high | 95°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Comfortable months | 8 | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Seasonal temperature swing | 31°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. They describe what a typical year looks like rather than what the weather is doing today.
Physical risk
The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, earthquake and drought.
Low or minimal exposure: lightning, landslide, volcanic activity, hail, winter weather, strong wind, tornado.
Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. City values are the population-weighted mean of the counties the city overlaps, using AreaProfile place-to-county land-area weights. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.
Taxes
AreaProfile does not yet publish tax comparisons. No tax dataset has met the source admission test for coverage, methodology transparency and update cadence, and the product rule is to omit a dimension rather than estimate it. The Area Score is calculated without a tax component and the weighting is documented on the methodology page.
Nothing on AreaProfile is individualized tax advice.
Access
7 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest 22 miles away.
| Airport | Code | Distance | Longest runway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton Metro | SCK | 22 mi | 10,245 ft |
| Norman Y Mineta San Jose Intl | SJC | 54 mi | 11,000 ft |
| Oakland San Francisco Bay | OAK | 67 mi | 10,520 ft |
Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.
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Data & methodology
| Used for | Source | Source period | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Access | Federal Aviation Administration Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service | NASR current cycle | 28-day NASR cycle |
| Physical risk | Federal Emergency Management Agency National Risk Index | National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0) | Periodic dataset versions (v1.20.0 current) |
| Climate | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly) | 1991-2020 Normals | Every ten years (next release follows the 2001–2030 period) |
| Jobs | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics | June 2026 | Monthly |
| Jobs | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics | 2025 OEWS | Annual (spring release) |
| Demographics | U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program | July 1, 2024 estimate | Annual (vintage released each spring) |
| Development | U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey | 12 months ending July 2026 | Monthly, roughly three weeks after the reference month |
| Demographics, Housing, Income, Jobs | U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File) | 2024 ACS 5-Year | Annual (5-year estimates released each December) |
Profile recalculated August 29, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology or browse every source.