Modesto, California
Area Profile
219,215 residents. Public schools, jobs, income, housing cost, climate and natural-hazard risk for Modesto, in Stanislaus County.
How this area ranks
Data updated · 16 sourcesEmployment conditions sit below most comparable cities measured: unemployment is 6.7% and the Opportunity signal places Modesto in the bottom 13%.
In the public schools here, 29% of students met the state standard in mathematics, with 22.3 students for every teacher.
Rent takes 34% of renter income here, at or above the threshold conventionally called cost-burdened, while buying strains owner incomes less — the median home is 4.5 times what its owners earn, against a historic benchmark near three.
These sentences are written by fixed rules from the measurements below — a statement appears because a number crossed a stated threshold, and the values behind it are stored with it. No figure anywhere on this site is invented, estimated or inferred to fill a gap. How this works.
At a glance
Jobs & opportunity
Unemployment of 6.7% — higher than in all but 5% of the 4,226 measured US cities.
Employment fell 1.4% over the past year, to 93,432 employed residents.
| Metric | Value | Compared nationally | Source period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income of new arrivalsStanislaus County, CA’s figurefiling years 2022–2023 | $60,663 | 29th percentileof 4,101 | filing years 2022–2023 |
| Income of those who leftStanislaus County, CA’s figurefiling years 2022–2023 | $62,220 | 27th percentileof 4,101 | filing years 2022–2023 |
| Median household income ±$1,8252024 ACS 5-Year | $79,891 | Top 33%of 29,223 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Per capita income ±$9222024 ACS 5-Year | $35,523 | Top 45%of 31,420 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Poverty rate ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year | 13.4% | Bottom 40%of 31,773 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Average commute ±0.8 min2024 ACS 5-Year | 30.6 min | Bottom 31%of 31,543 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Bachelor's degree or higher ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year | 21.2% | Top 48%of 31,919 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Drove alone to work ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year | 74.9% | 42nd percentileof 31,433 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| EmploymentJuly 2026 | 93,432 | Top 43%of 4,226 | July 2026 |
| Employment change (3 years)July 2026 | −0.3% | Bottom 47%of 4,226 | July 2026 |
| Employment change (year over year)July 2026 | −1.4% | Bottom 36%of 4,226 | July 2026 |
| Labor forceJuly 2026 | 100,122 | 57th percentileof 4,226 | July 2026 |
| Labor force participation ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year | 76.0% | Bottom 42%of 31,513 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Mean annual wageModesto, CA Metro Area’s figure2025 OEWS | $67,230 | Bottom 45%of 3,729 | 2025 OEWS |
| Median annual wageModesto, CA Metro Area’s figure2025 OEWS | $50,610 | Bottom 46%of 3,729 | 2025 OEWS |
| Public transit to work ±0.4%2024 ACS 5-Year | 1.6% | 88th percentileof 31,433 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Unemployment change (year over year)July 2026 | −0.6% | Top 23%of 4,226 | July 2026 |
| Unemployment rateJuly 2026 | 6.7% | Bottom 5%of 4,226 | July 2026 |
| Worked from home ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year | 8.4% | 54th percentileof 31,433 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
Unemployment rate
Median household income, successive ACS releases
Largest occupations — Modesto, CA
| Occupation | People employed | Median annual wage |
|---|---|---|
| Home Health and Personal Care Aides | 9,160 | $34,320 |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 6,700 | $42,630 |
| Retail Salespersons | 5,140 | $37,430 |
| Cashiers | 4,890 | $36,490 |
| Registered Nurses | 4,850 | $132,590 |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 4,810 | $46,630 |
Searches the 40 largest occupations here that have a published wage.
Occupational employment and wages are published for metropolitan areas rather than for individual cities or ZIP areas, so these describe the wider labor market this location sits in. 2025 OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
29% of students met the state standard in mathematics and 44% in reading, across the schools here that reported results.
There are 22.3 students for every full-time teacher across 74 public schools, more than in most measured places.
| School | District | Students | Per teacher | Math | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph A. Gregori High | Modesto City High | 2,346 | 23.0 | 28% | 52% |
| James C. Enochs High | Modesto City High | 2,304 | 23.8 | 43% | 74% |
| Modesto High | Modesto City High | 2,292 | 22.3 | 26% | 56% |
| Thomas Downey High | Modesto City High | 2,192 | 24.1 | 20% | 51% |
| Grace M. Davis High | Modesto City High | 2,083 | 22.2 | 14% | 38% |
| Peter Johansen High | Modesto City High | 2,029 | 22.5 | 18% | 43% |
| Fred C. Beyer High | Modesto City High | 1,609 | 22.0 | 28% | 55% |
| Elizabeth Ustach Middle | Sylvan Union Elementary | 1,016 | 20.7 | 58% | 60% |
| Great Valley Academy · charter | Great Valley Academy District | 972 | 23.1 | 37% | 47% |
| Somerset Middle | Sylvan Union Elementary | 947 | 21.0 | 34% | 46% |
| Great Valley Academy - Salida · charter | Great Valley Academy - Salida District | 927 | 25.1 | 33% | 46% |
| Daniel J. Savage Middle | Sylvan Union Elementary | 906 | 21.6 | 44% | 57% |
72.8% of students here are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch. That describes the circumstances families arrive with, not how the schools perform, so it is shown and not scored.
Public schools only, from the NCES Common Core of Data, placed by ZIP code — which schools are in this place, not which one a particular address is zoned for. A dash in a proficiency column is a gap in the federal file, not a bad result. Proficiency is measured against California’s own standard, so it is ranked within state. How to read school figures.
Housing & affordability
How it’s calculated — housing affordability →Prices for everything a household buys run about 5% above the national average — the Bureau of Economic Analysis index reads 105.1, against 100 for the nation. Nationally, housing drives most of the spread between places in this index; other goods vary far less.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index for the Modesto, CA Metro Area is up 26% over five years, and up 2.8% over the last year. It follows repeat sales of the same homes, so it measures price change rather than which homes happened to sell.
Homeowners here who pay a tax bill pay a median of $2,835 a year in real estate taxes, about 0.64% of the median home value.
HUD’s Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom, set near the 40th percentile of recent new leases, is $1,758, close to the $1,690 tenants already here pay.
At HUD’s Fair Market Rent of $1,758 a month for a two-bedroom, keeping rent to 30% of income takes a household income of about $70,300 a year, about 88% of the median household income here of $79,891.
The typical renter household here spends 34% of its income on rent, above the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened. Median gross rent runs $1,690 a month.
A median home at $442,700 costs 4.5 times the median income of its owner-occupied households, $99,127, above the historic benchmark of about 3 times income.
Prices here run about 5% above the national average. The spread between places is driven mostly by housing — goods vary far less — and this excludes taxes.
Published for the Modesto, CA Metro Area as a whole. Prices are regional — people shop, commute and rent across a metropolitan area rather than within a city boundary — so this describes the cost of living around this place better than a figure drawn to its own limits would.
The figures above are measured against Modesto’s median household income of $79,891, which describes the place rather than you. Enter your own and the ratio is recomputed against it. It stays in this browser.
| Metric | Value | Compared nationally | Source period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of living indexthe Modesto, CA Metro Area’s figure2023 | 105.1 | Bottom 33%of 3,700 | 2023 |
| Home price change (1 year)the Modesto, CA Metro Area’s figure2026 Q2 | +2.8% | 45th percentileof 4,154 | 2026 Q2 |
| Home price change (5 years)the Modesto, CA Metro Area’s figure2026 Q2 | +25.8% | 10th percentileof 4,154 | 2026 Q2 |
| Home price change (10 years)the Modesto, CA Metro Area’s figure2026 Q2 | +88.8% | 44th percentileof 4,154 | 2026 Q2 |
| Home price to income ±0.22024 ACS 5-Year | 4.5 | Bottom 12%of 26,815 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Homeownership rate ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year | 58.9% | 19th percentileof 31,717 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Housing units ±9032024 ACS 5-Year | 75,752 | 99th percentileof 32,177 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Market rent, one bedroomFY2026 | $1,356 | Top 47%of 4,072 | FY2026 |
| Market rent, three bedroomFY2026 | $2,442 | Bottom 37%of 4,072 | FY2026 |
| Market rent, two bedroomFY2026 | $1,758 | Bottom 43%of 4,072 | FY2026 |
| Median gross rent ±$332024 ACS 5-Year | $1,690 | Bottom 15%of 23,120 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median home value ±$4,9722024 ACS 5-Year | $442,700 | 86th percentileof 29,111 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median property taxes ±$822024 ACS 5-Year | $2,835 | 71st percentileof 26,440 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Owner household income ±$3,2312024 ACS 5-Year | $99,127 | Top 28%of 27,548 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Property tax rate ±0.02%2024 ACS 5-Year | 0.64% | 23rd percentileof 20,543 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Rent as a share of income ±1%2024 ACS 5-Year | 34.0% | Bottom 23%of 22,950 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Seasonal and second homes ±232024 ACS 5-Year | 25 | 74th percentileof 32,330 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Second homes2024 ACS 5-Year | 0.0% | 51st percentileof 31,895 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Vacancy rate2024 ACS 5-Year | 3.6% | 30th percentileof 31,769 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Vacant housing units ±4832024 ACS 5-Year | 2,763 | 98th percentileof 32,330 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
These measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with. They compare housing cost with local earnings only: transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not in them. How to read affordability, the two rent figures and the cost-of-living index.
Growth & development
How it’s calculated — growth →Development Momentum
An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.
Population has grown 1% since 2020, reaching 220,592 in 2024.
Permitting has turned upward after moving the other way the year before: 512 units authorized in 2025, up 196% on the prior year.
Federal tax returns show Stanislaus County, which contains Modesto, lost about 0.2% of its residents through moves within the US in the most recent year, counting those who arrived against those who left. Households that moved in reported an average income of $60,663, close to the $62,220 of households that moved out.
At 3.5 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is above the median for measured US cities.
Population, annual estimates
People moving in and out
Where newcomers came from
- San Joaquin County, CA 3,474 people · 21% of arrivals
- Merced County, CA 2,215 people · 14% of arrivals
- Santa Clara County, CA 1,563 people · 9.6% of arrivals
- Alameda County, CA 1,436 people · 8.8% of arrivals
- Sacramento County, CA 515 people · 3.2% of arrivals
Where people who left went
- San Joaquin County, CA 2,933 people · 17% of departures
- Merced County, CA 2,030 people · 12% of departures
- Alameda County, CA 823 people · 4.7% of departures
- Santa Clara County, CA 752 people · 4.3% of departures
- Sacramento County, CA 724 people · 4.2% of departures
Based on the address on federal tax returns, compared with the same filers a year earlier. It counts people who file, and sees a move only when the address on a return changes. Domestic moves only: people arriving from abroad are left out. This is the figure for Stanislaus County, CA. IRS Statistics of Income, filing years 2022–2023.
Housing units permitted per year
Weather & climate
8 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 95°F and January a low of 39°F.
Normal annual precipitation is 12.3 inches.
Air quality measures a median index of 53, in the Moderate band, and about 38 days a year pass 100, the threshold at which the air is unhealthy for sensitive groups.
Precipitation
| Metric | Value | Source period |
|---|---|---|
| 90th percentile air quality index2024 calendar year | 101 | 2024 calendar year |
| Annual precipitation1991-2020 Normals | 12.3" | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Average January low1991-2020 Normals | 39°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Average July high1991-2020 Normals | 95°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Comfortable months1991-2020 Normals | 8 | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Days above AQI 1002024 calendar year | 38 | 2024 calendar year |
| Median air quality index2024 calendar year | 53 | 2024 calendar year |
| Seasonal temperature swing1991-2020 Normals | 31°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
Air quality
A comfortable median and a bad tail are different problems. Wildfire smoke and summer ozone show up in the worst tenth of days, not in the middle of the year.
Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. Air quality is measured by EPA monitors and published by county only where a monitor sits; a county without one shows nothing rather than an estimate, and a county reading is still the county’s. How to read climate and air quality.
Physical risk
The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, earthquake and drought, with inland flooding alone responsible for 36% of it.
Low or minimal exposure: lightning, landslide, volcanic activity, hail, winter weather, strong wind, tornado, cold wave, tsunami, hurricane, ice storm, coastal flooding.
Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. City values are the population-weighted mean of the counties the city overlaps, using AreaProfile place-to-county land-area weights. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.
Below these are deaths rather than offenses, published for the county. The two measure different things and are not comparable with each other.
Modesto's police department reported 587 violent offenses per 100,000 residents, higher than most places with a department reporting. Property crime runs at 1,899.
Stanislaus County records 3.1 homicide deaths per 100,000 residents a year, near the middle of counties measured. The CDC does not publish this below county level.
Firearm deaths of all intents run at 5.3 per 100,000 — more than the homicide rate, since the figure counts suicides and accidents as well as homicides.
Drug overdose deaths run at 23.0 per 100,000 residents in Stanislaus County.
Firearm deaths count every intent together, and nationally the majority are suicides rather than homicides, so the firearm figure and the homicide figure above it count some of the same deaths twice over. They overlap and should not be added together.
Offenses are reported to the FBI by Modesto’s own police department and shown only where it reported every month of the year; a partial year is withheld rather than scaled up. Reported crime is what police recorded, which is not the same as what happened. Death rates are crude rates — deaths divided by population, not adjusted for age — except where a count was too small for the CDC to publish and it modeled the rate, which the card marks. They come from provisional death certificate records, published by the CDC by county and not below it. So they describe the county around Modesto (Stanislaus County) rather than Modesto itself. Neither is part of the Area Score. How to read crime rates and death rates.
What this profile does not cover
Each of these is absent for a reason, not by oversight. The Area Score is calculated without them; the weighting is on the methodology page.
- Taxes
- Income and sales taxes are not published: no source covers them nationally with a method open enough to check. Property taxes are shown in the housing section but are not part of the score. The cost-of-living index above is a price level for all consumption, not a household budget, and it excludes taxes. Nothing here is individualized tax advice.
- Anything about a specific address
- Every figure describes an area, not a street or a house.
Access
7 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest Stockton Metro at 22 miles.
| Metric | Value | Compared nationally | Source period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broadband access ±0.8%2024 ACS 5-Year | 92.1% | Top 39%of 31,588 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Distance to major airportNASR current cycle | 22 mi | Bottom 40%of 4,226 | NASR current cycle |
| Major airports within 100 milesNASR current cycle | 7 | Top 13%of 4,226 | NASR current cycle |
| No internet access ±0.8%2024 ACS 5-Year | 5.4% | Top 39%of 31,588 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Airport | Code | Distance | Longest runway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton Metro | SCK | 22 mi | 10,245 ft |
| Mineta San Jose Intl | SJC | 54 mi | 11,000 ft |
| Oakland San Francisco Bay | OAK | 67 mi | 10,520 ft |
Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.
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Other cities in Modesto, CA
Same metropolitan area, measured the same way| City | County | Population | Area Score | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turlock | Stanislaus County | 72,502 | 44 | Turlock vs Modesto |
| Ceres | Stanislaus County | 49,342 | 37 | Ceres vs Modesto |
| Riverbank | Stanislaus County | 25,166 | 48 | Riverbank vs Modesto |
| Patterson | Stanislaus County | 24,693 | 49 | |
| Oakdale | Stanislaus County | 23,194 | 48 | |
| Salida | Stanislaus County | 13,900 | 51 | |
| Newman | Stanislaus County | 12,316 | 36 |
Every city here is measured on the same scale from the same source releases, so the comparison is like for like. A higher Area Score reflects AreaProfile’s standardized weighting rather than a judgment about which is the better place to live.
Similar places
Matched on AreaProfile signals, not geographyCompare
Put Modesto side by side with a similar place.
Moving to Modesto from somewhere else?
You get the difference in prices, rent and weather, and the income that would keep pace.
Data & methodology
| Used for | Source | Source period |
|---|---|---|
| Access | Federal Aviation Administration Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service | NASR current cycle |
| Safety | Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime Data Explorer Summarized offense counts by law enforcement agency | 2025 calendar year |
| Physical risk | Federal Emergency Management Agency National Risk Index | National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0) |
| Demographics, Income | Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division U.S. Population Migration Data (county to county) | filing years 2022–2023 |
| Climate | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly) | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Housing | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional price parities and county personal income | 2023 |
| Jobs | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics | 2025 OEWS |
| Jobs | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics | July 2026 |
| Demographics | U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program | July 1, 2024 estimate |
| Development | U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Access, Demographics, Housing, Income, Jobs | U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File) | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Safety | U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics Provisional county-level mortality by intent | March 2025 to February 2026; May 2025 to April 2026 |
| Schools | U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics Common Core of Data and EDFacts assessments | 2018-19 school year; 2024-25 school year |
| Housing | U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Fair Market Rents | FY2026 |
| Climate | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air Quality System Daily Air Quality Index by county | 2024 calendar year |
| Housing | U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (traditional, all-transactions) | 2026 Q2 |
| Current conditions | NOAA National Weather Service National Weather Service current conditions | Live observation, read when the page opens |
Profile recalculated October 8, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology, or every source with how often each updates.
ZIP codes in Modesto
8 ZIP areasEvery ZIP area in Modesto with census figures of its own, largest first. The ones linked below diverge enough from the city as a whole to carry a full profile; the rest track Modesto closely, so their figures are here rather than on a page that would repeat this one. An Area Score is calculated for published profiles only, which is why it is blank on those rows.
| ZIP | Population | Median household income | Median home value | Area Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95355 | 60,710 | $86,849 | $469,000 | — |
| 95350 | 57,136 | $75,621 | $429,400 | — |
| 95351 | 48,498 | $58,275 | $343,500 | 40 |
| 95356 | 33,233 | $96,886 | $532,600 | — |
| 95358 | 30,469 | $76,924 | $431,900 | — |
| 95354 | 25,684 | $72,879 | $389,600 | — |
| 95357 | 13,599 | $95,707 | $445,400 | — |
| 95313 | 1,119 | $90,018 | $428,100 | — |