AreaProfile

95351Modesto, California

Area Profile

Income, jobs, climate, physical risk and development data for ZIP code 95351.

46
Area Score
Bottom 5% of 695 published profiles

How we calculate this

How this area ranks
Opportunity710th of 727 published ZIP areas21
GrowthTop 26% of 701 published ZIP areas63
Housing affordability686th of 800 published ZIP areas45
ClimateTop 26% of 779 published ZIP areas77
Physical resilience661st of 800 published ZIP areas22
Access607th of 779 published ZIP areas91
Economic stability630th of 800 published ZIP areas44
The quick read

Employment conditions sit below most comparable published ZIP profiles: unemployment is 6.5% and the Opportunity signal places 95351 in the bottom 2%.

Housing costs more relative to local incomes than in most published city profiles, with rent taking 30% of median household income.

Physical-risk exposure is above the national median, driven mainly by inland flooding, earthquake and drought.

At a glance

Population
48,498
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median household income
$58,275
Bottom 27% nationally
Density
5,454/sq mi
8.9 sq mi of land
Median age
29.7
2024 ACS 5-Year
City
Modesto
California
Metro area
Modesto, CA
Nearest major airport
SCK
23 mi · Stockton Metro
Median home value
$343,500
2024 ACS 5-Year

Jobs & opportunity

Unemployment of 6.5% is lower than 3% of the 1,061 measured US ZIP areas.

Employment fell 1.5% over the past year, to 92,693 employed residents.

MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Median household income ±$2,868$58,275Bottom 27%2024 ACS 5-Year
Per capita income ±$1,140$20,746Bottom 6%2024 ACS 5-Year
Poverty rate22.4%Top 14%2024 ACS 5-Year
Average commute31.1 minTop 32%2024 ACS 5-Year
Bachelor's degree or higher7.1%Bottom 8%2024 ACS 5-Year
Employment92,693Bottom 5%June 2026
Employment change (3 years)-0.0%Bottom 43%June 2026
Employment change (year over year)-1.5%Bottom 34%June 2026
Labor force99,174Bottom 7%June 2026
Labor force participation60.4%Bottom 49%2024 ACS 5-Year
Mean annual wage$67,230Top 50%2025 OEWS
Median annual wage$50,610Top 50%2025 OEWS
Unemployment change (year over year)-0.5%Bottom 25%June 2026
Unemployment rate6.5%Top 3%June 2026
Median household income, successive ACS releases
202120222023202458k51k
Each point is a separate five-year estimate, most recently $58,275 in the 2024 ACS 5-Year. Consecutive releases share four years of sample, so AreaProfile shows them as a record of successive estimates and does not compute a year-over-year change from them.
Largest occupations — Modesto, CA
OccupationPeople employedMedian annual wage
Home Health and Personal Care Aides9,160$34,320
Fast Food and Counter Workers6,700$42,630
Retail Salespersons5,140$37,430
Cashiers4,890$36,490
Registered Nurses4,850$132,590
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand4,810$46,630

Occupational employment and wages are published for metropolitan areas rather than for individual cities or ZIP areas, so these describe the wider labor market this location sits in. 2025 OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not publish labor-force data for ZIP areas. This is the figure for Modesto, CA, the city containing this ZIP code.

Housing & affordability

How it’s calculated →

Median rent of $1,465 takes 30% of median household income, above the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened.

A median home costs 5.9 times median household income here, well above the historic benchmark, at a level conventionally described as seriously unaffordable.

Rent as a share of income
30.2%
Above the 30% cost-burdened threshold
Home price to income
5.9×
median home value ÷ median income
Median gross rent
$1,465
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value
$343,500
2024 ACS 5-Year
MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Home price to income5.89Top 10%2024 ACS 5-Year
Homeownership rate48.3%Bottom 8%2024 ACS 5-Year
Housing units ±52713,736Top 10%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median gross rent ±$75$1,465Top 23%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value ±$11,145$343,500Top 27%2024 ACS 5-Year
Rent as a share of income30.2%Top 5%2024 ACS 5-Year
Vacancy rate3.7%Bottom 16%2024 ACS 5-Year

Both affordability measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with, so the comparison is like for like. They describe housing cost against local earnings and are not a cost-of-living index — transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not included, and a place can look affordable here and still be expensive to live in for reasons this does not capture.

Growth & development

How it’s calculated →
Development Momentum
63/ 100
Top 26% of 701 published city profiles

An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.

At 3.5 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is below the median for measured US ZIP areas.

Units permitted
768
12 months ending July 2026
Per 1,000 residents
3.5
Bottom 49% nationally
Year over year
+248%
vs the prior twelve months
Multifamily share
46.6%
units in 5+ unit buildings

The Building Permits Survey is not published for ZIP areas. This is the figure for Modesto, CA, the city containing this ZIP code.

Weather & climate

8 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 95°F and January a low of 39°F.

Normal annual precipitation is 12.3 inches.

30°50°70°90°110°JFMAMJJASOND
Solid line: normal daily high. Dashed line: normal daily low. 1991-2020 normals from NOAA station MODESTO CITY CO AP, 2.6 miles from this location.
Precipitation
JFMAMJJASOND2.6"
Normal monthly precipitation, in inches.
MetricValueSource period
Annual precipitation12.3"1991-2020 Normals
Average January low39°F1991-2020 Normals
Average July high95°F1991-2020 Normals
Comfortable months81991-2020 Normals
Seasonal temperature swing31°F1991-2020 Normals

Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. They describe what a typical year looks like rather than what the weather is doing today.

Physical risk

22 / 100
Physical resilience

The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, earthquake and drought.

DroughtHigh
EarthquakeHigh
Heat waveElevated
Inland floodingModerate
WildfireModerate
AvalancheModerate

Low or minimal exposure: lightning, landslide, volcanic activity, hail, winter weather, strong wind, tornado.

Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. ZIP values are the land-area-weighted mean of the counties the ZIP Code Tabulation Area intersects. Expected annual loss is not allocated below county level. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.

Taxes

AreaProfile does not yet publish tax comparisons. No tax dataset has met the source admission test for coverage, methodology transparency and update cadence, and the product rule is to omit a dimension rather than estimate it. The Area Score is calculated without a tax component and the weighting is documented on the methodology page.

Nothing on AreaProfile is individualized tax advice.

Access

7 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest 23 miles away.

AirportCodeDistanceLongest runway
Stockton MetroSCK23 mi10,245 ft
Norman Y Mineta San Jose IntlSJC54 mi11,000 ft
Oakland San Francisco BayOAK67 mi10,520 ft

Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.

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46
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Data & methodology

Used forSourceSource periodUpdated
AccessFederal Aviation Administration
Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service
NASR current cycle28-day NASR cycle
Physical riskFederal Emergency Management Agency
National Risk Index
National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0)Periodic dataset versions (v1.20.0 current)
ClimateNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly)
1991-2020 NormalsEvery ten years (next release follows the 2001–2030 period)
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
June 2026Monthly
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
2025 OEWSAnnual (spring release)
DemographicsU.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates Program
July 1, 2024 estimateAnnual (vintage released each spring)
DevelopmentU.S. Census Bureau
Building Permits Survey
12 months ending July 2026Monthly, roughly three weeks after the reference month
Demographics, Housing, Income, JobsU.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File)
2024 ACS 5-YearAnnual (5-year estimates released each December)

Profile recalculated August 29, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology or browse every source.

95351 vs Modesto

How this ZIP area compares with Modesto as a whole. Both figures come from the same ACS release, so the comparison is like for like.

95351
Modesto
Median household income
$58,275
vs
$79,891
Per capita income
$20,746
vs
$35,523
Population density
5,454/sq mi
vs
5,056/sq mi
Median home value
$343,500
vs
$442,700
Median gross rent
$1,465
vs
$1,690
Homeownership rate
48.3%
vs
58.9%
Bachelor's degree or higher
7.1%
vs
21.2%
Poverty rate
22.4%
vs
13.3%
Median age
29.7
vs
35.1

Some demographic statistics use Census ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, which approximate but do not exactly match USPS ZIP delivery geography. See the methodology for how AreaProfile maps between them.