AreaProfile

Modesto, CA

Metro Area Profile

553,990 residents. Jobs, income, development, climate and physical risk across the Modesto, CA metropolitan area.

51
Area Score
Bottom 8% of 361 published profiles

How we calculate this

How this area ranks
Opportunity324th of 361 published metros33
GrowthTop 49% of 440 published metros51
Housing affordability404th of 441 published metros61
ClimateTop 15% of 441 published metros77
Physical resilience392nd of 441 published metros21
AccessTop 40% of 441 published metros89
Economic stabilityTop 40% of 441 published metros66
The quick read

Employment conditions sit below most comparable published metro profiles: unemployment is 7.0% and the Opportunity signal places Modesto in the bottom 10%.

Housing costs more relative to local incomes than in most published city profiles, with rent taking 24% of median household income.

Physical-risk exposure is above the national median, driven mainly by inland flooding, earthquake and drought.

At a glance

Population
553,990
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median household income
$81,468
Top 16% nationally
Density
370/sq mi
1496.2 sq mi of land
Median age
34.9
2024 ACS 5-Year
County
Metro area
Modesto, CA
Nearest major airport
SCK
26 mi · Stockton Metro
Median home value
$450,100
2024 ACS 5-Year

Jobs & opportunity

Unemployment of 7.0% is lower than 4% of the 361 measured US metros.

Employment fell 1.5% over the past year, to 232,684 employed residents.

MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Median household income ±$1,473$81,468Top 16%2024 ACS 5-Year
Per capita income ±$575$34,849Bottom 45%2024 ACS 5-Year
Poverty rate13.5%Top 50%2024 ACS 5-Year
Average commute31.2 minTop 6%2024 ACS 5-Year
Bachelor's degree or higher19.6%Bottom 22%2024 ACS 5-Year
Employment232,684Top 30%June 2026
Employment change (3 years)0.0%Bottom 46%June 2026
Employment change (year over year)-1.5%Bottom 26%June 2026
Labor force250,262Top 29%June 2026
Labor force participation61.9%Top 39%2024 ACS 5-Year
Mean annual wage$67,230Top 22%2025 OEWS
Median annual wage$50,610Top 25%2025 OEWS
Metro employment195,230Top 31%2025 OEWS
Unemployment change (year over year)-0.5%Bottom 15%June 2026
Unemployment rate7.0%Top 4%June 2026
Unemployment rate
2021/062022/032022/122023/092024/062025/032026/012026/069.54.6
Monthly unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, most recent value 7.0% in June 2026.
Largest occupations — Modesto, CA
OccupationPeople employedMedian annual wage
Home Health and Personal Care Aides9,160$34,320
Fast Food and Counter Workers6,700$42,630
Retail Salespersons5,140$37,430
Cashiers4,890$36,490
Registered Nurses4,850$132,590
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand4,810$46,630

Occupational employment and wages are published for metropolitan areas rather than for individual cities or ZIP areas, so these describe the wider labor market this location sits in. 2025 OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Housing & affordability

How it’s calculated →

Median rent of $1,623 takes 24% of median household income, below the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened.

A median home costs 5.5 times median household income here, well above the historic benchmark, at a level conventionally described as seriously unaffordable.

Rent as a share of income
23.9%
Below the 30% cost-burdened threshold
Home price to income
5.5×
median home value ÷ median income
Median gross rent
$1,623
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value
$450,100
2024 ACS 5-Year
MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Home price to income5.52Top 9%2024 ACS 5-Year
Homeownership rate61.2%Bottom 10%2024 ACS 5-Year
Housing units ±132185,149Top 14%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median gross rent ±$24$1,623Top 6%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value ±$3,186$450,100Top 8%2024 ACS 5-Year
Rent as a share of income23.9%Top 5%2024 ACS 5-Year
Vacancy rate3.9%Bottom 1%2024 ACS 5-Year

Both affordability measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with, so the comparison is like for like. They describe housing cost against local earnings and are not a cost-of-living index — transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not included, and a place can look affordable here and still be expensive to live in for reasons this does not capture.

Growth & development

How it’s calculated →
Development Momentum
51/ 100
Top 49% of 440 published city profiles
Permitting is increasing, measured from 2024 to 2025.

An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.

Population has grown 1% since 2020, reaching 556,972 in 2024.

At 2.7 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is below the median for measured US metros.

Units permitted
1,495
12 months ending July 2026
Per 1,000 residents
2.7
Bottom 38% nationally
Year over year
+83%
vs the prior twelve months
Multifamily share
23.9%
units in 5+ unit buildings
Population, annual estimates
20202021202220232024557k552k
Census Population Estimates Program, July 1 of each year. These annual estimates are designed for year-over-year comparison, unlike the ACS five-year figure shown as this profile's population.

Weather & climate

8 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 95°F and January a low of 39°F.

Normal annual precipitation is 12.3 inches.

30°50°70°90°110°JFMAMJJASOND
Solid line: normal daily high. Dashed line: normal daily low. 1991-2020 normals from NOAA station MODESTO CITY CO AP, 5.1 miles from this location.
Precipitation
JFMAMJJASOND2.6"
Normal monthly precipitation, in inches.
MetricValueSource period
Annual precipitation12.3"1991-2020 Normals
Average January low39°F1991-2020 Normals
Average July high95°F1991-2020 Normals
Comfortable months81991-2020 Normals
Seasonal temperature swing31°F1991-2020 Normals

Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. They describe what a typical year looks like rather than what the weather is doing today.

Physical risk

21 / 100
Physical resilience

The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, earthquake and drought.

DroughtHigh
EarthquakeHigh
Heat waveElevated
Inland floodingModerate
WildfireModerate
AvalancheModerate

Low or minimal exposure: lightning, landslide, volcanic activity, hail, winter weather, strong wind, tornado.

Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. This value is the population-weighted mean of all component counties; expected annual loss is their sum. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.

Taxes

AreaProfile does not yet publish tax comparisons. No tax dataset has met the source admission test for coverage, methodology transparency and update cadence, and the product rule is to omit a dimension rather than estimate it. The Area Score is calculated without a tax component and the weighting is documented on the methodology page.

Nothing on AreaProfile is individualized tax advice.

Access

7 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest 26 miles away.

AirportCodeDistanceLongest runway
Stockton MetroSCK26 mi10,245 ft
Norman Y Mineta San Jose IntlSJC53 mi11,000 ft
Oakland San Francisco BayOAK68 mi10,520 ft

Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.

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51
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Data & methodology

Used forSourceSource periodUpdated
AccessFederal Aviation Administration
Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service
NASR current cycle28-day NASR cycle
Physical riskFederal Emergency Management Agency
National Risk Index
National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0)Periodic dataset versions (v1.20.0 current)
ClimateNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly)
1991-2020 NormalsEvery ten years (next release follows the 2001–2030 period)
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
June 2026Monthly
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
2025 OEWSAnnual (spring release)
DemographicsU.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates Program
July 1, 2024 estimateAnnual (vintage released each spring)
DevelopmentU.S. Census Bureau
Building Permits Survey
12 months ending July 2026Monthly, roughly three weeks after the reference month
Demographics, Housing, Income, JobsU.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File)
2024 ACS 5-YearAnnual (5-year estimates released each December)

Profile recalculated August 29, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology or browse every source.