McMinnville, Tennessee

Area Profile

13,844 residents. Public schools, jobs, income, housing cost, climate and natural-hazard risk for McMinnville, in Warren County.

54out of 100
Area Score
Bottom 33% of 4,196 profiles measured

How we calculate this

How this area ranks

Data updated · 13 sources
Opportunity2,573rd of 4,199 cities measured51
Schools4,039th of 4,162 cities measured10
GrowthTop 15% of 4,224 cities measured70
Housing affordabilityTop 33% of 4,218 cities measured72
ClimateTop 21% of 4,225 cities measured78
Physical resilience2,454th of 4,226 cities measured49
Access3,627th of 4,226 cities measured73
Economic stability4,065th of 4,226 cities measured23
The quick read

Unemployment is 4.1% and median household income $47,179, putting employment conditions in the middle range of cities measured. The unemployment rate is published for Warren County, TN, which contains McMinnville, rather than for McMinnville alone.

Development activity is both elevated and accelerating — 75 housing units permitted over the past twelve months, up 19% on the prior year.

Rent takes 30% of renter income here, at the 30% threshold conventionally called cost-burdened, and the median home is 3.1 times what its owners earn.

These sentences are written by fixed rules from the measurements below — a statement appears because a number crossed a stated threshold, and the values behind it are stored with it. No figure anywhere on this site is invented, estimated or inferred to fill a gap. How this works.

At a glance

Population
13,844
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median household income
$47,179
Bottom 19% nationally
Density
1,252/sq mi
11.1 sq mi of land
Median age
37.0
2024 ACS 5-Year
County
Tennessee
Micro area
Nearest major airport
MQY
47 mi · Smyrna
Median home value
$182,200
2024 ACS 5-Year

Jobs & opportunity

Unemployment across Warren County, TN, which contains McMinnville, is 4.1%, lower than in 58% of the 4,226 measured US cities.

Employment across Warren County, TN, which contains McMinnville, grew 0.8% over the past year, to 16,825 employed residents.

Median household income of $47,179 is lower than in 81% of measured US cities.

MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Income of new arrivalsWarren County, TN’s figurefiling years 2022–2023$62,21031st percentileof 4,101filing years 2022–2023
Income of those who leftWarren County, TN’s figurefiling years 2022–2023$42,3831st percentileof 4,101filing years 2022–2023
Median household income ±$7,1242024 ACS 5-Year$47,179Bottom 19%of 29,2232024 ACS 5-Year
Per capita income ±$2,7572024 ACS 5-Year$25,507Bottom 22%of 31,4202024 ACS 5-Year
Poverty rate ±5%2024 ACS 5-Year20.7%Bottom 21%of 31,7732024 ACS 5-Year
Average commute ±2.9 min2024 ACS 5-Year27.1 minBottom 48%of 31,5432024 ACS 5-Year
Bachelor's degree or higher ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year11.7%Bottom 25%of 31,9192024 ACS 5-Year
Drove alone to work ±5%2024 ACS 5-Year68.4%24th percentileof 31,4332024 ACS 5-Year
EmploymentWarren County, TN’s figureJuly 202616,825Bottom 17%of 4,226July 2026
Employment change (3 years)Warren County, TN’s figureJuly 2026+0.9%Top 32%of 4,226July 2026
Employment change (year over year)Warren County, TN’s figureJuly 2026+0.8%Top 21%of 4,226July 2026
Labor forceWarren County, TN’s figureJuly 202617,54417th percentileof 4,226July 2026
Labor force participation ±4%2024 ACS 5-Year67.1%Bottom 21%of 31,5132024 ACS 5-Year
Public transit to work ±0.4%2024 ACS 5-Year0.0%1st percentileof 31,4332024 ACS 5-Year
Unemployment change (year over year)Warren County, TN’s figureJuly 2026−0.5%Top 25%of 4,226July 2026
Unemployment rateWarren County, TN’s figureJuly 20264.1%Top 42%of 4,226July 2026
Worked from home ±4%2024 ACS 5-Year10.1%61st percentileof 31,4332024 ACS 5-Year

Median household income, successive ACS releases

202120222023202447k38k
Each point is a separate five-year estimate, most recently $47,179 in the 2024 ACS 5-Year. Consecutive releases share four years of sample, so AreaProfile shows them as a record of successive estimates and does not compute a year-over-year change from them.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes city-level labor data only for places of 25,000 or more. This is the figure for Warren County, TN, which contains this city.

27% of students met the state standard in mathematics and 30% in reading, across the schools here that reported results.

Public schools
9
2024-25 school year
Students per teacher
—
Math proficiency
27.2%
Bottom 9% in Tennessee
Reading proficiency
30.3%
Bottom 11% in Tennessee
All 9 public schools on record, largest first.
SchoolDistrictStudentsPer teacherMathReading
Warren County High SchoolWarren County1,689—18%36%
Warren County Middle SchoolWarren County807—23%29%
Hickory Creek SchoolWarren County603—50%38%
Centertown ElementaryWarren County566—43%34%
Bobby Ray MemorialWarren County520—19%15%
West ElementaryWarren County479—25%20%
Dibrell ElementaryWarren County389—27%27%
Irving College ElementaryWarren County301—32%27%
Warren County Alternative AcademyWarren County41———

Public schools only, from the NCES Common Core of Data, placed by ZIP code — which schools are in this place, not which one a particular address is zoned for. A dash in a proficiency column is a gap in the federal file, not a bad result. Proficiency is measured against Tennessee’s own standard, so it is ranked within state. How to read school figures.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index for the non-metropolitan parts of Tennessee is up 58% over five years, and up 3.6% over the last year. It follows repeat sales of the same homes, so it measures price change rather than which homes happened to sell.

Homeowners here who pay a tax bill pay a median of $1,001 a year in real estate taxes, about 0.55% of the median home value.

HUD’s Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom, set near the 40th percentile of recent new leases, is $970, some 23% above the $791 tenants already here pay.

At HUD’s Fair Market Rent of $970 a month for a two-bedroom, keeping rent to 30% of income takes a household income of about $38,800 a year, about 82% of the median household income here of $47,179.

The typical renter household here spends 30% of its income on rent, at the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened. Median gross rent runs $791 a month.

A median home at $182,200 costs 3.1 times the median income of its owner-occupied households, $59,482, above the historic benchmark of about 3 times income.

Rent as a share of income
29.8%
Below the 30% cost-burdened threshold
Home price to income
3.1×
median home value ÷ owner household income
Market rent, two bedroom
$970
what a new lease costs · FY2026
Median gross rent
$791
what tenants now pay · 2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value
$182,200
2024 ACS 5-Year

The figures above are measured against McMinnville’s median household income of $47,179, which describes the place rather than you. Enter your own and the ratio is recomputed against it. It stays in this browser.

MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Home price change (1 year)the non-metropolitan parts of Tennessee’s figure2026 Q2+3.6%61st percentileof 4,1542026 Q2
Home price change (5 years)the non-metropolitan parts of Tennessee’s figure2026 Q2+58.3%93rd percentileof 4,1542026 Q2
Home price change (10 years)the non-metropolitan parts of Tennessee’s figure2026 Q2+130.8%95th percentileof 4,1542026 Q2
Home price to income ±0.42024 ACS 5-Year3.1Bottom 33%of 26,8152024 ACS 5-Year
Homeownership rate ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year49.7%9th percentileof 31,7172024 ACS 5-Year
Housing units ±3452024 ACS 5-Year6,22090th percentileof 32,1772024 ACS 5-Year
Market rent, one bedroomFY2026$740Top 3%of 4,072FY2026
Market rent, three bedroomFY2026$1,170Top 2%of 4,072FY2026
Market rent, two bedroomFY2026$970Top 5%of 4,072FY2026
Median gross rent ±$392024 ACS 5-Year$791Top 27%of 23,1202024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value ±$23,7362024 ACS 5-Year$182,20049th percentileof 29,1112024 ACS 5-Year
Median property taxes ±$902024 ACS 5-Year$1,00124th percentileof 26,4402024 ACS 5-Year
Owner household income ±$2,7022024 ACS 5-Year$59,482Bottom 22%of 27,5482024 ACS 5-Year
Property tax rate ±0.09%2024 ACS 5-Year0.55%15th percentileof 20,5432024 ACS 5-Year
Rent as a share of income ±4%2024 ACS 5-Year29.8%Bottom 42%of 22,9502024 ACS 5-Year
Seasonal and second homes ±612024 ACS 5-Year5684th percentileof 32,3302024 ACS 5-Year
Second homes2024 ACS 5-Year0.9%61st percentileof 31,8952024 ACS 5-Year
Vacancy rate2024 ACS 5-Year12.8%73rd percentileof 31,7692024 ACS 5-Year
Vacant housing units ±2722024 ACS 5-Year85494th percentileof 32,3302024 ACS 5-Year

These measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with. They compare housing cost with local earnings only: transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not in them. How to read affordability, the two rent figures.

Development Momentum

70/ 100
Top 15% of 4,224 published city profiles
The most recent move in permitting was upward, in a series running from 2022 to 2025. That is the direction of the recent run. The chart below compares the first year with the last, which can point the other way.

An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.

Population has grown 2% since 2020, reaching 14,032 in 2024.

Permitting has turned upward after moving the other way the year before: 61 units authorized in 2025, up 42% on the prior year.

New construction is predominantly single-family: of 75 units permitted over the past twelve months, only 19% are in buildings of five or more homes.

Federal tax returns show Warren County, which contains McMinnville, gained about 1.7% of its residents through moves within the US in the most recent year, counting those who arrived against those who left. Households that moved in reported an average income of $62,210, above the $42,383 of households that moved out.

At 5.4 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is above the median for measured US cities.

Units permitted
75
12 months ending July 2026
Per 1,000 residents
5.4
Top 26% nationally
Year over year
+19%
vs the prior twelve months
Multifamily share
18.7%
units in 5+ unit buildings

Population, annual estimates

2020202120222023202414k14k
Census Population Estimates Program, July 1 of each year. These annual estimates are designed for year-over-year comparison, unlike the ACS five-year figure shown as this profile's population. It has been rising for the last 2 years, over a series running from 2020 to 2024.

People moving in and out

Net migration
+1.7%
of residents, in a year
Arrivals from another state
34%
of people moving in
Income of arrivals
$62,210
average per tax return
Income of those who left
$42,383
average per tax return

Where newcomers came from

  1. Rutherford County, TN 313 people · 15% of arrivals
  2. Coffee County, TN 209 people · 10% of arrivals
  3. DeKalb County, TN 126 people · 6.1% of arrivals
  4. Cannon County, TN 103 people · 5.0% of arrivals
  5. Davidson County, TN 85 people · 4.1% of arrivals

Where people who left went

  1. Rutherford County, TN 192 people · 13% of departures
  2. Coffee County, TN 188 people · 13% of departures
  3. Cannon County, TN 104 people · 7.1% of departures
  4. White County, TN 102 people · 6.9% of departures
  5. DeKalb County, TN 100 people · 6.8% of departures

Based on the address on federal tax returns, compared with the same filers a year earlier. It counts people who file, and sees a move only when the address on a return changes. Domestic moves only: people arriving from abroad are left out. This is the figure for Warren County, TN. IRS Statistics of Income, filing years 2022–2023.

Housing units permitted per year

20222023202420257616
Annual totals from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permitting in 2025 was higher than 2022 (+281%).

Weather & climate

7 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 89°F and January a low of 31°F.

Normal annual precipitation is 54.4 inches, including 4.1 inches of snow.

20°40°60°80°100°JFMAMJJASOND
Solid line: normal daily high. Dashed line: normal daily low. 1991-2020 normals from NOAA station MC MINNVILLE, 1.0 miles from this location.

Precipitation

JFMAMJJASOND5.5"
Normal monthly precipitation, in inches.
MetricValueSource period
Annual precipitation1991-2020 Normals54.4"1991-2020 Normals
Annual snowfall1991-2020 Normals4.1"1991-2020 Normals
Average January low1991-2020 Normals31°F1991-2020 Normals
Average July high1991-2020 Normals89°F1991-2020 Normals
Comfortable months1991-2020 Normals71991-2020 Normals
Seasonal temperature swing1991-2020 Normals37°F1991-2020 Normals

Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. How to read climate and air quality.

Physical risk

49 / 100
Physical resilience

The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, tornado and cold wave, with inland flooding alone responsible for 35% of it.

TornadoModerate
Cold waveModerate
EarthquakeElevated
DroughtModerate
Strong windModerate
LightningModerate
Inland floodingModerate

Low or minimal exposure: winter weather, hurricane, hail, ice storm, landslide, wildfire, heat wave, coastal flooding, tsunami, avalanche, volcanic activity.

Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. City values are the population-weighted mean of the counties the city overlaps, using AreaProfile place-to-county land-area weights. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.

Violent crime
532
per 100,000 residents · 2025 calendar year
Property crime
1,711
per 100,000 residents · 2025 calendar year

Below these are deaths rather than offenses, published for the county. The two measure different things and are not comparable with each other.

McMinnville's police department reported 532 violent offenses per 100,000 residents, higher than most places with a department reporting. Property crime runs at 1,711.

Warren County has a modeled homicide rate of about 5.9 per 100,000 residents a year, because the CDC suppresses counts this small, higher than most counties measured. The CDC does not publish this below county level.

Firearm deaths of all intents run at 28.1 per 100,000 — more than the homicide rate, since the figure counts suicides and accidents as well as homicides.

Homicide
5.9
per 100,000 residents · modeled, not measured
Firearm deaths, all intents
28.1
per 100,000 residents
Suicide
32.8
per 100,000 residents

Firearm deaths count every intent together, and nationally the majority are suicides rather than homicides, so the firearm figure and the homicide figure above it count some of the same deaths twice over. They overlap and should not be added together.

Offenses are reported to the FBI by McMinnville’s own police department and shown only where it reported every month of the year; a partial year is withheld rather than scaled up. Reported crime is what police recorded, which is not the same as what happened. Death rates are crude rates — deaths divided by population, not adjusted for age — except where a count was too small for the CDC to publish and it modeled the rate, which the card marks. They come from provisional death certificate records, published by the CDC by county and not below it. So they describe the county around McMinnville (Warren County) rather than McMinnville itself. Neither is part of the Area Score. How to read crime rates and death rates.

What this profile does not cover

Each of these is absent for a reason, not by oversight. The Area Score is calculated without them; the weighting is on the methodology page.

Cost of living
Price parities are published for metropolitan areas, and this place lies outside one.
Air quality
The EPA publishes an air-quality index only where a monitor sits. There is none in this county, and a modeled value would be a different kind of number from the measured ones everywhere else on this page.
Taxes
Income and sales taxes are not published: no source covers them nationally with a method open enough to check. Property taxes are shown in the housing section but are not part of the score. Cost of living is published where the Bureau of Economic Analysis measures it, though not for this place. Nothing here is individualized tax advice.
Anything about a specific address
Every figure describes an area, not a street or a house.

Access

3 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest Smyrna at 47 miles.

MetricValueCompared nationallySource period
Broadband access ±8%2024 ACS 5-Year87.4%Bottom 40%of 31,5882024 ACS 5-Year
Distance to major airportNASR current cycle47 miBottom 14%of 4,226NASR current cycle
Major airports within 100 milesNASR current cycle3Bottom 20%of 4,226NASR current cycle
No internet access ±3%2024 ACS 5-Year9.3%Bottom 41%of 31,5882024 ACS 5-Year
AirportCodeDistanceLongest runway
SmyrnaMQY47 mi8,038 ft
Nashville IntlBNA59 mi11,030 ft
Huntsville Intl-Carl T Jones FldHSV92 mi10,001 ft

Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.

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Area Score
54
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Data & methodology

Used forSourceSource period
AccessFederal Aviation Administration
Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service
NASR current cycle
SafetyFederal Bureau of Investigation, Crime Data Explorer
Summarized offense counts by law enforcement agency
2025 calendar year
Physical riskFederal Emergency Management Agency
National Risk Index
National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0)
Demographics, IncomeInternal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division
U.S. Population Migration Data (county to county)
filing years 2022–2023
ClimateNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly)
1991-2020 Normals
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
July 2026
DevelopmentU.S. Census Bureau
Building Permits Survey
12 months ending July 2026
Access, Demographics, Housing, Income, JobsU.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File)
2024 ACS 5-Year
DemographicsU.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates Program
July 1, 2024 estimate
SafetyU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics
Provisional county-level mortality by intent
May 2025 to April 2026
SchoolsU.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Common Core of Data and EDFacts assessments
2018-19 school year; 2024-25 school year
HousingU.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research
Fair Market Rents
FY2026
HousingU.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency
House Price Index (traditional, all-transactions)
2026 Q2
Current conditionsNOAA National Weather Service
National Weather Service current conditions
Live observation, read when the page opens

Profile recalculated October 8, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology, or every source with how often each updates.

ZIP codes in McMinnville

1 ZIP area

Every ZIP area in McMinnville with census figures of its own, largest first.

ZIPPopulationMedian household incomeMedian home valueArea Score
3711034,296$52,932$198,00054