McMinnville, Tennessee

Area Profile

13,844 residents. Public schools, jobs, income, housing cost, climate and natural-hazard risk for McMinnville, in Warren County.

58out of 100
Area Score
Bottom 40% of 2,944 published profiles

How we calculate this

How this area ranks
Opportunity2137th of 3,904 published cities54
Schools2422nd of 2,668 published cities18
GrowthTop 19% of 2,973 published cities68
Housing affordabilityTop 42% of 4,223 published cities85
ClimateTop 21% of 4,223 published cities78
Physical resilience2443rd of 4,182 published cities49
Access3584th of 4,226 published cities73
Economic stability3908th of 4,226 published cities31
The quick read

Unemployment is 4.2% and median household income $47,179, putting employment conditions in the middle range of published city profiles.

Development activity is both elevated and accelerating — 75 housing units permitted over the past twelve months, up 19% on the prior year.

Rent takes 20% of median household income here, below the 30% threshold conventionally called cost-burdened, and the median home is 3.9 times that income.

At a glance

Population
13,844
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median household income
$47,179
Bottom 19% nationally
Density
1,252/sq mi
11.1 sq mi of land
Median age
37.0
2024 ACS 5-Year
County
Warren County
Tennessee
Metro area
McMinnville, TN
Nearest major airport
MQY
47 mi · Smyrna
Median home value
$182,200
2024 ACS 5-Year

Jobs & opportunity

Unemployment of 4.2% is lower than 55% of the 3,904 measured US cities.

Employment grew 3.3% over the past year, to 16,965 employed residents.

Median household income of $47,179 is below 81% of measured US cities.

MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Median household income ±$7,124$47,179Bottom 19%2024 ACS 5-Year
Per capita income ±$2,757$25,507Bottom 22%2024 ACS 5-Year
Poverty rate20.7%Top 22%2024 ACS 5-Year
Average commute27.1 minTop 48%2024 ACS 5-Year
Bachelor's degree or higher11.7%Bottom 25%2024 ACS 5-Year
Employment16,965Bottom 19%June 2026
Employment change (3 years)1.3%Top 31%June 2026
Employment change (year over year)3.3%Top 2%June 2026
Labor force17,700Bottom 19%June 2026
Labor force participation56.0%Bottom 35%2024 ACS 5-Year
Unemployment change (year over year)-0.5%Bottom 17%June 2026
Unemployment rate4.2%Bottom 45%June 2026
Median household income, successive ACS releases
202120222023202447k38k
Each point is a separate five-year estimate, most recently $47,179 in the 2024 ACS 5-Year. Consecutive releases share four years of sample, so AreaProfile shows them as a record of successive estimates and does not compute a year-over-year change from them.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes city-level labor data only for places of 25,000 or more. This is the figure for Warren County, TN, which contains this city.

28% of students met the state standard in mathematics and 25% in reading, across the schools here that reported results.

Public schools
9
2024-25 school year
Students per teacher
Math proficiency
28.2%
Bottom 21% in Tennessee
Reading proficiency
25.1%
Bottom 16% in Tennessee
SchoolDistrictStudentsPer teacherMathReading
Warren County High SchoolWarren County1,689
Warren County Middle SchoolWarren County80727%22%
Hickory Creek SchoolWarren County60335%25%
Centertown ElementaryWarren County56628%34%
Bobby Ray MemorialWarren County52029%25%
West ElementaryWarren County47922%20%
Dibrell ElementaryWarren County38930%25%
Irving College ElementaryWarren County30125%25%
Warren County Alternative AcademyWarren County41

Public schools only, from the NCES Common Core of Data. Schools are placed by ZIP code, so this is which schools are in this place rather than which one a particular address is zoned for — district boundaries do not follow municipal ones, and enrollment zones change. Fully virtual schools are excluded: they enroll students from across the state while reporting one administrative address, and counting them here would describe a school population this place does not have. The assessment covers grades 3 through 8, so a high school shows no proficiency figure — a dash in those columns means the test was not given at that school, not that it performed badly. Proficiency is measured against Tennessee’s own standard, so it compares cleanly within the state and only broadly against other states; AreaProfile therefore ranks it within state. The directory is current, while the proficiency figures are from the last school year with national coverage before the pandemic interrupted testing.

Housing & affordability

How it’s calculated →

Median rent of $791 takes 20% of median household income, below the 30% threshold at which a household is considered cost-burdened.

A median home costs 3.9 times median household income here, above the historic benchmark of about three times income.

Rent as a share of income
20.1%
Below the 30% cost-burdened threshold
Home price to income
3.9×
median home value ÷ median income
Median gross rent
$791
2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value
$182,200
2024 ACS 5-Year
MetricValueCompared with peersSource period
Home price to income3.86Top 29%2024 ACS 5-Year
Homeownership rate49.7%Bottom 9%2024 ACS 5-Year
Housing units ±3456,220Top 9%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median gross rent ±$39$791Bottom 27%2024 ACS 5-Year
Median home value ±$23,736$182,200Bottom 49%2024 ACS 5-Year
Rent as a share of income20.1%Top 40%2024 ACS 5-Year
Vacancy rate13.7%Top 37%2024 ACS 5-Year

Both affordability measures come from the same ACS release as the income they are compared with, so the comparison is like for like. They describe housing cost against local earnings and are not a cost-of-living index — transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes are not included, and a place can look affordable here and still be expensive to live in for reasons this does not capture.

Growth & development

How it’s calculated →
Development Momentum
68/ 100
Top 19% of 2,973 published city profiles
Permitting is increasing, measured from 2022 to 2025.

An AreaProfile calculation combining permit volume per resident, its direction over one and three years, population change and employment growth. Permit volume alone is not the measure.

Population has grown 2% since 2020, reaching 14,032 in 2024.

Permitting has turned upward after moving the other way the year before.

New construction is predominantly single-family: only 19% of permitted units are in buildings of five or more homes.

At 5.4 permitted units per 1,000 residents, building activity is above the median for measured US cities.

Units permitted
75
12 months ending July 2026
Per 1,000 residents
5.4
Top 27% nationally
Year over year
+19%
vs the prior twelve months
Multifamily share
18.7%
units in 5+ unit buildings
Population, annual estimates
2020202120222023202414k14k
Census Population Estimates Program, July 1 of each year. These annual estimates are designed for year-over-year comparison, unlike the ACS five-year figure shown as this profile's population.
Housing units permitted per year
20222023202420257616
Annual totals from the Census Building Permits Survey. Permitting in 2025 was higher than 2022 (+281%).

Weather & climate

7 of the twelve months have a normal average temperature between 55°F and 80°F. July averages a high of 89°F and January a low of 31°F.

Normal annual precipitation is 54.4 inches, including 4.1 inches of snow.

20°40°60°80°100°JFMAMJJASOND
Solid line: normal daily high. Dashed line: normal daily low. 1991-2020 normals from NOAA station MC MINNVILLE, 1.0 miles from this location.
Precipitation
JFMAMJJASOND5.5"
Normal monthly precipitation, in inches.
MetricValueSource period
Annual precipitation54.4"1991-2020 Normals
Annual snowfall4.1"1991-2020 Normals
Average January low31°F1991-2020 Normals
Average July high89°F1991-2020 Normals
Comfortable months71991-2020 Normals
Seasonal temperature swing37°F1991-2020 Normals

Climate figures are thirty-year normals, not current conditions. They describe what a typical year looks like rather than what the weather is doing today.

Physical risk

49 / 100
Physical resilience

The hazards accounting for most of this area's expected annual loss are inland flooding, tornado and cold wave.

TornadoModerate
Cold waveModerate
EarthquakeElevated
DroughtModerate
Strong windModerate
LightningModerate
Inland floodingModerate

Low or minimal exposure: winter weather, hurricane, hail, ice storm, landslide, wildfire, heat wave.

Hazard ratings are AreaProfile calculations derived from the FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0 (December 2025). FEMA publishes at county level. City values are the population-weighted mean of the counties the city overlaps, using AreaProfile place-to-county land-area weights. FEMA does not endorse this presentation. Higher physical resilience means lower exposure.

These are deaths, not offences. AreaProfile does not publish reported crime, and this is not a substitute for it — it says nothing about burglary, theft or assault.

Warren County records 3.9 homicide deaths per 100,000 residents a year, near the middle of counties measured. The CDC does not publish this below county level.

Firearm deaths of all intents run at 15.1 per 100,000 — more than the homicide rate, because nationally most firearm deaths are suicides.

Homicide
3.9
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths
Firearm deaths, all intents
15.1
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths
Suicide
28.1
per 100,000 residents · under 10 deaths

Firearm deaths count every intent together, and nationally the majority are suicides rather than homicides. The two columns overlap and should not be added.

Age-adjusted rates from provisional death certificate records, published by the CDC for Warren County as a whole — these rates are not published below county level. A county can hold both a dense city centre and a suburb whose experience of it is nothing alike, so this describes the county around McMinnville rather than McMinnville itself. That is why AreaProfile shows these figures and does not put them in the Area Score. Where fewer than ten deaths were recorded the count is suppressed at source, and a rate built on single figures moves sharply between releases. What this measure has that reported crime does not: a death certificate is filed whether or not the local police agency submitted a return that year, so the figures stay comparable between places and over time.

What this profile does not cover

Three things people look for are missing from every AreaProfile page, and each is missing for a reason rather than by oversight. The Area Score is calculated without them and the weighting is documented on the methodology page.

Reported crime
The FBI’s Crime Data Explorer is the only source for reported offences with national coverage and a published method, and it requires an API key AreaProfile does not hold. Arrest counts, news volume and commercial “safety scores” are not substituted in the meantime. What is published above under Safety is a different measurement — deaths rather than offences, from death certificates rather than police returns — and it covers no property crime at all.
Taxes
No tax dataset has met the source admission test for coverage, transparent methodology and update cadence. Nothing here is individualized tax advice.
Full cost of living
No public source publishes one with national coverage and a documented method. Housing affordability above is computed from published rent, price and income, and excludes transport, groceries, healthcare, insurance and taxes — commuting cost in particular tends to offset suburban housing savings.

Access

3 major airports lie within 100 miles, the nearest 47 miles away.

AirportCodeDistanceLongest runway
SmyrnaMQY47 mi8,038 ft
Nashville IntlBNA59 mi11,030 ft
Huntsville Intl-Carl T Jones FldHSV92 mi10,001 ft

Airport identity, position and runway data come from the FAA. “Major airport” is an AreaProfile classification — a public-use civil airport with a paved runway of at least 8,000 feet — not an FAA hub designation. Distances are straight-line, not driving distance.

Customize your score

What matters to you?

Choose what you weight most heavily. Nothing is saved to an account — your preferences stay in this browser, and the Area Score never changes.

Area Score
58
Your Score

Select one or more priorities to see how this location scores against them.

Compare

Put McMinnville side by side with a similar place.

McMinnville vs SumterMcMinnville vs JoplinMcMinnville vs HarrisonMcMinnville vs Eden

Data & methodology

Used forSourceSource periodUpdated
AccessFederal Aviation Administration
Airports (NASR) — Aeronautical Data Delivery Service
NASR current cycle28-day NASR cycle
Physical riskFederal Emergency Management Agency
National Risk Index
National Risk Index December 2025 (v1.20.0)Periodic dataset versions (v1.20.0 current)
ClimateNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (Monthly)
1991-2020 NormalsEvery ten years (next release follows the 2001–2030 period)
JobsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
June 2026Monthly
DemographicsU.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates Program
July 1, 2024 estimateAnnual (vintage released each spring)
DevelopmentU.S. Census Bureau
Building Permits Survey
12 months ending July 2026Monthly, roughly three weeks after the reference month
Demographics, Housing, Income, JobsU.S. Census Bureau
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (Table-Based Summary File)
2024 ACS 5-YearAnnual (5-year estimates released each December)
safetyU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics
Provisional county-level mortality by intent
April, 2025 to March, 2026Quarterly, with a rolling twelve-month window alongside complete calendar years
schoolsU.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Common Core of Data and EDFacts assessments
2019-20 school year; 2024-25 school yearDirectory annually; assessment results as EDFacts releases them

Profile recalculated August 30, 2026. Recalculation is not the same as new source data — each figure above shows the period its source actually covers. Read the full methodology or browse every source.

ZIP codes in McMinnville

1 published ZIP profiles
ZIPPopulationMedian household incomeArea Score
3711034,296$52,93261