Modesto receives the higher standardized Area Score. That reflects AreaProfile's weighting, not a judgment about which place is better to live in.
Signals
Modesto
Fresno
Opportunity
33 · Bottom 10%
vs42 · Bottom 22%
Growth
51 · Top 49%
vs46 · Bottom 42%
Climate
77 · Top 15%
vs70 · Top 42%
Physical resilience
21 · Bottom 11%
vs10 · Bottom 4%
Housing affordability
61 · Bottom 8%
vs66 · Bottom 13%
Access
89 · Top 40%
vs90 · Top 37%
Economic stability
66 · Top 40%
vs48 · Bottom 34%
Measured values
| Metric | Modesto | Fresno | Source period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 553,990 | 1,177,665 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median household income | $81,468 | $74,468 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Per capita income | $34,849 | $32,569 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Population density | 370/sq mi | 145/sq mi | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median home value | $450,100 | $389,400 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median gross rent | $1,623 | $1,392 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Homeownership rate | 61.2% | 57.0% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Unemployment rate | 7.0% | 7.7% | June 2026 |
| Employment change (year over year) | -1.5% | -0.5% | June 2026 |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 19.6% | 23.4% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Poverty rate | 13.5% | 18.4% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Housing units permitted (12 months) | 1,495 | 3,391 | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Permits per 1,000 residents | 2.7 | 2.9 | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Permit change (year over year) | 82.5% | -7.4% | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Average July high | 95°F | 98°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Average January low | 39°F | 41°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Annual precipitation | 12.3" | 11.0" | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Distance to major airport | 26 mi | 8 mi | NASR current cycle |
| Average commute | 31.2 min | 25.4 min | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median age | 34.9 | 33.7 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
A bolded value is the more favorable of the two where the metric has a clear direction. Metrics like population and density have no inherent better or worse and are shown unweighted.
Physical risk tradeoff
Modesto
Elevated or high exposure: drought, earthquake, heat wave.
Fresno
Elevated or high exposure: drought, earthquake, wildfire.
Full profiles: Modesto, CA Metro Area · Fresno, CA Metro Area · How this is calculated: methodology