Mesa vs Surprise
Which is the better fit for you?
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Surprise receives the higher standardized Area Score. That reflects AreaProfile's weighting, not a judgment about which place is better to live in.
If you are moving
What the difference in prices, rent, homes and weather comes to, using the published figures for the two places. Add your income to see what it would take to keep pace.
Moving from Mesa to Surprise
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These are differences between published figures, not a forecast of your budget. Income and sales taxes, commuting, schools, insurance and the job you would actually get are not in them, and a price index describes a metropolitan area, so two places in one metro read the same. HUD’s rent is a benchmark for a new lease, not a listing.
Signals
Measured values
| Metric | Mesa | Surprise | Source period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 511,764 | 154,948 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median household income | $82,752 | $96,711 — more favorable | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Per capita income — the two are too close to separate | $41,453 ±$576 | $41,888 ±$1,118 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Population density | 3,609/sq mi | 1,402/sq mi | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median home value | $408,000 | $435,100 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median gross rent | $1,620 — more favorable | $2,033 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Market rent, two bedroom | $1,875 — more favorable | $2,332 | FY2026 |
| Cost of living index | 104.7 | 104.7 | 2023 |
| Homeownership rate | 64.4% | 79.1% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% — more favorable | 5.1% | July 2026 |
| Employment change (year over year) | −3.3% | −3.3% | July 2026 |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 32.5% — more favorable | 30.5% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Poverty rate — the two are too close to separate | 9.9% ±0.6% | 8.7% ±1% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Housing units permitted (12 months) | 1,478 | 2,428 | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Permits per 1,000 residents | 2.9 | 15.7 — more favorable | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Permit change (year over year) | −35.1% | −34.3% — more favorable | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Average July high | 107°F | 104°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Average January low | 46°F | 44°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Annual precipitation | 7.2" | 8.9" | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Distance to major airport | 7 mi — more favorable | 18 mi | NASR current cycle |
| Average commute | 26.4 min — more favorable | 32.4 min | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median age | 37.4 | 41.4 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Public schools | 140 | 37 | 2024-25 school year |
| Students per teacher | 17.6 — more favorable | 17.9 | 2024-25 school year |
| Math proficiency | 50.5% — more favorable | 49.9% | 2018-19 school year |
| Reading proficiency | 49.5% | 52.5% — more favorable | 2018-19 school year |
A bolded value is the more favorable of the two where the metric has a clear direction. Metrics like population and density have no inherent better or worse and are shown unweighted.
2 rows above show both figures with a ± margin and neither in bold. Those come from the American Community Survey, which samples rather than counts, and the gap between the two is smaller than the uncertainty on the figures themselves — so the survey did not find a difference to report, and calling either one the winner would be reading a result out of noise.
The number of units permitted is not marked because the larger place always permits more; the per-resident rate is the fair comparison.
Physical risk tradeoff
Mesa
Elevated or high exposure: inland flooding.
Surprise
Elevated or high exposure: inland flooding.
Full profiles: Mesa, AZ · Surprise, AZ · How this is calculated: methodology