Surprise receives the higher standardized Area Score. That reflects AreaProfile's weighting, not a judgment about which place is better to live in.
Signals
Surprise
Mesa
Opportunity
45 · Bottom 27%
vs38 · Bottom 15%
Growth
73 · Top 13%
vs42 · Bottom 35%
Climate
58 · Bottom 10%
vs59 · Bottom 12%
Physical resilience
47 · Bottom 37%
vs47 · Bottom 37%
Housing affordability
67 · Bottom 29%
vs66 · Bottom 28%
Access
94 · Top 42%
vs99 · Top 8%
Economic stability
53 · Bottom 37%
vs55 · Bottom 40%
Measured values
| Metric | Surprise | Mesa | Source period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 154,948 | 511,764 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median household income | $96,711 | $82,752 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Per capita income | $41,888 | $41,453 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Population density | 1,402/sq mi | 3,609/sq mi | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median home value | $435,100 | $408,000 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median gross rent | $2,033 | $1,620 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Homeownership rate | 79.1% | 64.4% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Unemployment rate | 5.2% | 4.8% | June 2026 |
| Employment change (year over year) | -3.9% | -3.9% | June 2026 |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 30.5% | 32.5% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Poverty rate | 8.6% | 10.3% | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Housing units permitted (12 months) | 2,428 | 1,478 | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Permits per 1,000 residents | 15.7 | 2.9 | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Permit change (year over year) | -34.3% | -35.1% | 12 months ending July 2026 |
| Average July high | 104°F | 107°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Average January low | 44°F | 46°F | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Annual precipitation | 8.9" | 7.2" | 1991-2020 Normals |
| Distance to major airport | 18 mi | 7 mi | NASR current cycle |
| Average commute | 32.4 min | 26.4 min | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Median age | 41.4 | 37.4 | 2024 ACS 5-Year |
| Public schools | 37 | 140 | 2024-25 school year |
| Students per teacher | 19.16 | 17.32 | 2024-25 school year |
A bolded value is the more favorable of the two where the metric has a clear direction. Metrics like population and density have no inherent better or worse and are shown unweighted.
Physical risk tradeoff
Surprise
Elevated or high exposure: inland flooding.
Mesa
Elevated or high exposure: inland flooding.
Full profiles: Surprise, AZ · Mesa, AZ · How this is calculated: methodology